10-13-2021, 07:30 PM
Week 5 Pythagorean Projections
![[Image: SUaBBWf.png]](https://i.imgur.com/SUaBBWf.png)
The Buffalo Bills top the list, playing at a blistering 16-1 pace after their domination of the Chiefs this past weekend. As we get deeper into the season, we are starting to see some of the top teams take shape and it is looking like Arizona, Dallas, New Orleans and Tampa Bay are potentiasl contenders along with Buffalo. Our Cincinnati Bengals dropped to a 10 win pace after the loss to Green Bay, still sporting a positive point differential.
Week 5 SRS
![[Image: I1eAI0R.png]](https://i.imgur.com/I1eAI0R.png)
The top five in our SRS rankings are very similar to our projected wins with Buffalo, Dallas, Arizona and Tampa Bay making up four of the top five. The one difference is the Chargers coming in at #4 with the Saints ranking 8th. Why this difference? The Chargers have played Dallas, Kansas City, and Cleveland. All three of these teams rank as a top 10 team by this model, and the Chargers beat two of them. Cincinnati ranks as a completely average team by coming in at 15th with a zero SRS. Remember, SRS is telling you how many points that team is better than when comparing to a theoretical average team.
Week 5 Adjusted Receiving Yards - NEW
![[Image: 0KLq5VM.png]](https://i.imgur.com/0KLq5VM.png)
This is a metric I have been spending some time on to try to get right. This is taking a receivers yards and TDs to combine them into one number using the formula provided by PFR for adjusted passing yards (receiving yards + (20 * TDs)). This shows you an overall number, which is sorted by largest to smallest and then shows the percentage of passing offense that player has contributed. Ja'Marr Chase, Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel are having incredible years so far, all accounting for over 50% of their respective teams passing offense. Corey Davis and Darnell Mooney top the list when looking at percentage of offense contributed, with Davis being 74% of the Jets passing offense and Mooney being 84%(!!!) of the Bears offense.
Week 5 Adjusted QB Ratings
![[Image: wkqTDBC.png]](https://i.imgur.com/wkqTDBC.png)
I made one final adjustment to this formula and we are going to let it ride from here until the end of the season. I re-did the regressions on the metrics Brian Burke used in order to make it more modernized. I was using his coefficients, which were from the early 2000's. We now see Brady and Herbert catapult into the top 10 with huge performances this past weekend and Burrow drops out of the top 10 all the way down to 14th. Why did this happen? Well, when I re-ran the numbers, I found a larger penalty for interceptions. This could likely be due to how pass heavy offenses are, and how much better offenses are in general. Because of this larger penalty, the formula drives Burrow down the list because of his interception percentage, which ranks as the 4th highest INT % in the league. Only Zach Wilson, Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence have a higher INT % than Burrow.
The Buffalo Bills top the list, playing at a blistering 16-1 pace after their domination of the Chiefs this past weekend. As we get deeper into the season, we are starting to see some of the top teams take shape and it is looking like Arizona, Dallas, New Orleans and Tampa Bay are potentiasl contenders along with Buffalo. Our Cincinnati Bengals dropped to a 10 win pace after the loss to Green Bay, still sporting a positive point differential.
Week 5 SRS
The top five in our SRS rankings are very similar to our projected wins with Buffalo, Dallas, Arizona and Tampa Bay making up four of the top five. The one difference is the Chargers coming in at #4 with the Saints ranking 8th. Why this difference? The Chargers have played Dallas, Kansas City, and Cleveland. All three of these teams rank as a top 10 team by this model, and the Chargers beat two of them. Cincinnati ranks as a completely average team by coming in at 15th with a zero SRS. Remember, SRS is telling you how many points that team is better than when comparing to a theoretical average team.
Week 5 Adjusted Receiving Yards - NEW
This is a metric I have been spending some time on to try to get right. This is taking a receivers yards and TDs to combine them into one number using the formula provided by PFR for adjusted passing yards (receiving yards + (20 * TDs)). This shows you an overall number, which is sorted by largest to smallest and then shows the percentage of passing offense that player has contributed. Ja'Marr Chase, Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel are having incredible years so far, all accounting for over 50% of their respective teams passing offense. Corey Davis and Darnell Mooney top the list when looking at percentage of offense contributed, with Davis being 74% of the Jets passing offense and Mooney being 84%(!!!) of the Bears offense.
Week 5 Adjusted QB Ratings
I made one final adjustment to this formula and we are going to let it ride from here until the end of the season. I re-did the regressions on the metrics Brian Burke used in order to make it more modernized. I was using his coefficients, which were from the early 2000's. We now see Brady and Herbert catapult into the top 10 with huge performances this past weekend and Burrow drops out of the top 10 all the way down to 14th. Why did this happen? Well, when I re-ran the numbers, I found a larger penalty for interceptions. This could likely be due to how pass heavy offenses are, and how much better offenses are in general. Because of this larger penalty, the formula drives Burrow down the list because of his interception percentage, which ranks as the 4th highest INT % in the league. Only Zach Wilson, Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence have a higher INT % than Burrow.
