11-09-2021, 07:07 PM
(11-09-2021, 05:38 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I tend to think that momentum is overstated in most cases. I've argued that it doesn't exist, but I'd like to modify that argument - momentum DOES exist, it is a synonym for morale or confidence. Players absolutely do improve their morale and confidence based on their play (or lose said morale and confidence). I DON'T think that 'momentum' has as big of an impact as many people think it does. Part of my belief comes from my personal playing days, the rest from conversations with coaches and other statheads along with a study that looked into this and didn't find much team improvement after 'momentum defining plays'.
Maybe they do come out fired up and go up 14 points. Or, maybe they don't and the game has endless paths to go down, still. I genuinely don't believe that the interception cost us the game. Cincinnati marched right back down and scored to tie it up, but Cleveland mauled them afterwards.
Momentum doesn't exist, except like you said "morale or confidence" and it only lasts until the very next play.
Anything that exists on a play by play basis shouldn't be used as a metric for something that lasts 60+ plays.
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