11-10-2021, 11:18 AM
(11-10-2021, 12:17 AM)J24 Wrote: Last season Gio and Mixon (the top two backs per attempts) averaged 3.5 yards a carry. Yeah the rush yards per attempt were better overall but that had to do with QB runs and Wr sweeps.
This season the top two backs Mixon and Perine are averaging 4.3 yards a carry. That's a significant improvement.
As far as sacks and Hits goes a lot of that can be attributed too Joe holding onto the ball too long and poor protection by RBs and TEs.
Let's put it this way the Offensive line has improved tremendously since last season but they still have a long ways to go to be good.
2020 Bengals Offense
4.084 yards per carry (22nd)
-0.112 EPA per play (26th)
40.5% success rate (19th)
57% success rate on short yardage runs (25th)
2.460 yards per carry on short yardage runs (24th)
0.076 EPA per play on short yardage runs (16th)
Burrow was hit every 5.86 snaps (32nd out of 40)
2021 Bengals Offense
4.004 yards per carry (22nd)
-0.093 EPA per play (21st)
38.4% success rate (25th)
48.4% success rate on short yardage runs (28th)
2.030 yards per carry on short yardage runs (27th)
-0.177 EPA per play on short yardage runs (26th)
Burrow has been hit every 5.98 snaps (27th out of 32)
This from the nflfastR database, a play-by-play database that goes back to 1999. I am using the R programming language. I have filtered out penalties and gathered these metrics, rushing based on team and passing based on the QB since the QB largely stays static.
Where is the tremendous improvement? The Bengals have largely stayed stagnant in team YPC, they improved from 26th to 21st in rush EPA per play, they have actually decreased in success rate, which means that their running game is more inconsistent. Success rate is just a binary indicator of whether or not a run play produced positive expected points added (EPA). Cincinnati is likely hitting more big runs to increase their EPA, but they aren't remaining consistent with it. Burrow's hit rate has ever so slightly improved by 2%. Cincinnati has also been worse at short yardage runs this year, short being classified as <= 2 yards to go.
There is no tremendous improvement. The line still sucks. Individual players have improved. I do believe that Spain is playing better this year and Reiff is an improvement over Hart, but the line as a unit has seen no tremendous improvement, or really any improvement at all. They are more less performing right where they were last year.
EDIT - Hell, just to address your argument about top rushers, I will provide data on teams top rushers.
2020 Bengals Primary Rushers
3.91 yards per carry (28th)
-0.11549 EPA per rush (27th)
37.5% success rate (25th)
2021 Bengals Primary Rushers
4.30 yards per carry (13th, genuinely good improvement here)
-0.11653 EPA per rush (23rd)
37% success rate (24th)
To summarize, Cincinnati has seen good improvement in their yards per carry but have seen a decrease in EPA per rush and success rate. Despite these decreases, their relative rankings have gone up slightly but nothing dramatic.
Cincinnati had 72 runs of zero or less yards last season and they have 43 already this season, per game average of 4.5 runs in 2020 and 4.7 runs in 2021. The run game has maintained roughly the same explosive characteristic with 19 runs of 10+ yards this season vs 34 runs of 10+ last season. In short, Cincinnati's run is more or less the same as what it was last season but there is a large uptick in YPC when accounting for top two rushers. Other efficiency metrics still peg them in the lower half of the league and almost exactly what they were last season. The run-game explosiveness has roughly stayed the same.
In order to argue that there has been a 'tremendous' improvement in the line, you have to make the argument that YPC is the most important rushing statistic and discredit all other efficiency metrics and you also have to make the argument that Joe's sacks and hits are primarily coming from backs and tight ends vs the line itself last year. If you want to make that argument and you have that proof readily available, then great, I would love to see it. Otherwise, it is a silly argument.
