Can We Make A Run With This O-Line

[KillerGoose]

(11-21-2021, 09:38 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I completely get what you are saying, but the problem is the opposing defenses don't have to respect the run and they are keying on the passing game, and that is getting Burrow hit way too much.  How B A D is Cincinnati without Burrow?

I am not saying they need to be a run-first team, with a higher % on the run, but even 2-3 yard runs early in a game have a way of opening things up and they also pay dividends in the fourth quarter.  

Ask any offensive linemen what he would rather be doing:  run block or pass block.  They will tell you run block every day of the week and twice on Sunday.  It motivates them to DRIVE someone rather than retreat and catch someone.  

Mixon has been one of the highest rated PFF players on the team, especially his running scores.  He is averaging 4.2 yards per carry.  Derrick Henry is averaging 4.3.  The difference is the Titans keep pounding Henry and he eventually breaks one.  It also, as previously mentioned, really wears down opposing defenders.  I know there is about a 20 lb difference between Henry and Mixon, but trust me, if you are a 185 lb DB, and you have to tackle Mixon and then sprint after Higgins or Chase the next play, you are happier when Mixon isn't getting carries.

Burrow has also been lethal out of play-action.  He may love empty, but I think if they want to keep him healthy, running and more play-action is the key.

Two things I hope to see out of this offense this week:   A few more carries for Mixon and more high % targets for Boyd. Grind them down, keep their offense off the field.  

Defenses always have to respect the run, if the threat of a run exists. This means if a RB is on the field, they have to respect him. If they don't play their run fits, then all of a sudden you have a no-named RB running wild on you because there are running lanes. This is the whole conversation based around running success and passing success. They don't correlate. For every good passing team that has a good running game, there is a good passing team that has a bad running game. Hell, look no further than Cincinnati for that one. The Rams are another good example. They are independent of each other. 

To your point regarding Henry, I will say that Henry was being a little overrated this season. He wasn't the best RB in the league when he was healthy. His eye-popping numbers simply come from the sheer amount of times he touched the ball. He was on pace for 465 carries this season, comfortably beating the all-time record. Even disregarding the extra game, we has on pace to beat it by 20 carries. The efficiency wasn't there, though, and that is incredibly important. Even weeks 1-6, Chubb and Taylor were playing better football than Henry. The idea that running wears down a defense is conventional logic that doesn't really hold true. I'm going back to 2015 until current for this dataset, but the second quarter is the best rushing quarter by most metrics, followed by third and fourth and finally first. However, the differences are miniscule and not really indicative of anything. Here is the screenshot.



You can see that the numbers are all over the place. The difference between the first and fourth quarter on EPA per play is 0.0002. The first quarter actually has a better rushing success rate than the fourth quarter, and a higher YPC. The fourth quarter has a higher TD percentage than all of them. Nothing really here to say any of these are better than the others aside from the EPA per rush being significantly better in the second than other quarters. 

I do agree that more play-action would be good, and I would love to see Mixon touch the ball more but in the passing game. He is a lethal receiver and is incredibly valuable in that aspect. Plus, he has also struggled with nagging injuries, so it would help take the beating off of him a little bit.