11-29-2021, 08:17 PM
(11-29-2021, 08:10 PM)Au165 Wrote: The issue with this exercise is defining what is “good”. In reality many backs can give you 4+ a carry, and that is why analytics usually say the backs are pretty interchangeable for the most part. If we look at backs this season who average at least 10 carries a game they appeared in (to account for injuries), there are a total of 24 that average 4 yards a carry or more. That tells me there are plenty of capable backs in the league, if we added in guys who added more through the air rather than just carries that number probably climbs a couple more.
People get enamored with volume stats like TDs and YDs when in reality those are stats of opportunity. When you look at efficiency based numbers that are contextualized with at least a decent workload you see there are an abundance of capable HB’s in the league.
Oh I 100% agree, volume stats are worthless in evaluation. I usually look at a combination of YPC, EPA and SR for RBs. Ben Baldwin plots data by EPA per rush and PFF Run Blocking Grade, which is a good look. Even by using those three metrics, the second round RBs from the last 10 years are either boom or bust. Usually you’ll find some good committee guys, but those seem few and far between. It’s strange.
