Threads from the Enemy week 13: Chargers

[CJD]

(11-30-2021, 03:24 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I really haven't seen this consensus favoring Herbert. Not being disrespectful, I just really haven't. It seemed neck and neck prior to injury, then all the Burrow talk went away...but after the hot start for Burrow/Chase this year, I've seen a lot more national love for Burrow than for Herbert. Except from Keyshawn Johnson, but that guy is useless, unintelligent and unfunny.


The passing numbers favor Burrow almost across the board. Burrow is pushing the ball more, hence the higher YPA and INT%. Longer throws = more risk. But give me the guy who is throwing longer at a higher completion rate.

Seriously...the fact that Burrow is completing 3% more of his throws while throwing longer on average is pretty telling. Herbert should have the better % because hes throwing short (within 5 yards of LOS) roughly twice as much last I checked.

Rush yards are meaningless to me. Herbert isn't Lamar or Cam...and a big chunk of that came on one run.

Arm strength is sooo incredibly overrated. The top QBs of all time are arguably Brady, Montana, Peyton and Brees. None of which had a great arm. All pretty standard issue in that category. Rodgers and Mahomes have cannons. So does Trevor Lawrence.

What good is the arm if Burrow is posting better numbers? Which he definitely is. Even with the INTs. Last I checked, the deep ball numbers also favored Burrow, and Burrow is crushing Herbert on mid-range throws.

I don't have access to advanced metrics like intermediate pass completion percentage or percentage of passes within 5 yards of the LOS or any of that, so I'll just take your word for it. Like I said, I don't think either was a bad selection and I definitely don't think the Bengals should look back at 2020 and, in hindsight, wish they took Herbert. For the scheme that we run and the players we have, I think Burrow fits our offense perfectly.

I'm just saying I don't think you can say "It's been decided. Burrow is better" after less than 2 seasons, especially with Burrow's season being cut short in 2020. 

I agree that Joe's yards per attempt being higher is fantastic for us, but I also think that might be a tad bit inflated this year. The long Chase touchdowns against Green Bay and Baltimore (70 yards and 82 yards, respectively), for example, increased his YPA by 0.4 yards all by themselves (2683/337 =7.96, 2835/339 = 8.36). 2 plays, one of which was a prayer that somehow wasn't batted down (it's crazy, the ball was in the exact centimeter it needed to be to not be batted away) and the other which wasn't even a deep throw, account for almost 50% of the difference between Burrow's and Herbert's YPA. Obviously, Herbert is going to have a few of those kinds of plays as well, but my point is YPA isn't the end all be all when it comes to QB efficiency.

I wouldn't go so far as to say the media narrative completely favors Herbert. I think a lot of media give Joe a lot of credit, but I've seen a lot of stories and segments that are eager to call Herbert Elite, like this article, while I haven't really seen that same response to Joe. Joe gets a lot of stories talking about how elite his connection to Chase is, but very few that call him outright "elite" (for whatever that's worth).

And I think the reason the narrative is different between them is because the media loves physical specimens, of which Herbert definitely is. Herbert has one of the strongest arms in the NFL and, while he isn't Lamar Jackson, he's definitely got more than enough speed from the QB position. We'll see if he continues to unlock that part of his game as he develops. Joe isn't as fast as he is, doesn't run as much as Herbert does and doesn't have the cannon that Herbert does. Those things don't make a player elite, but they do make them more interesting to talk about on a tv show.