Threads from the Enemy week 13: Chargers

[Shake n Blake]

(11-30-2021, 03:43 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I don't have access to advanced metrics like intermediate pass completion percentage or percentage of passes within 5 yards of the LOS or any of that, so I'll just take your word for it. Like I said, I don't think either was a bad selection and I definitely don't think the Bengals should look back at 2020 and, in hindsight, wish they took Herbert. For the scheme that we run and the players we have, I think Burrow fits our offense perfectly.

I'm just saying I don't think you can say "It's been decided. Burrow is better" after less than 2 seasons, especially with Burrow's season being cut short in 2020. 

I agree that Joe's yards per attempt being higher is fantastic for us, but I also think that might be a tad bit inflated this year. The long Chase touchdowns against Green Bay and Baltimore (70 yards and 82 yards, respectively), for example, increased his YPA by 0.4 yards all by themselves (2683/337 =7.96, 2835/339 = 8.36). 2 plays, one of which was a prayer that somehow wasn't batted down (it's crazy, the ball was in the exact centimeter it needed to be to not be batted away) and the other which wasn't even a deep throw, account for almost 50% of the difference between Burrow's and Herbert's YPA. Obviously, Herbert is going to have a few of those kinds of plays as well, but my point is YPA isn't the end all be all when it comes to QB efficiency.

I wouldn't go so far as to say the media narrative completely favors Herbert. I think a lot of media give Joe a lot of credit, but I've seen a lot of stories and segments that are eager to call Herbert Elite, like this article, while I haven't really seen that same response to Joe. Joe gets a lot of stories talking about how elite his connection to Chase is, but very few that call him outright "elite" (for whatever that's worth).

And I think the reason the narrative is different between them is because the media loves physical specimens, of which Herbert definitely is. Herbert has one of the strongest arms in the NFL and, while he isn't Lamar Jackson, he's definitely got more than enough speed from the QB position. We'll see if he continues to unlock that part of his game as he develops. Joe isn't as fast as he is, doesn't run as much as Herbert does and doesn't have the cannon that Herbert does. Those things don't make a player elite, but they do make them more interesting to talk about on a tv show.

1.5 years is too soon to say who's better when both have played well. I'll give you that.

I'm not sure what you want to judge them on though. You key in on YPA and try to discredit it by removing plays, but you'd have to remove 4 long bombs to make Joe's YPA similar to Justin's? Like you said, those plays happen, and they happen for Justin as well. Tbh, last time I looked, their deep ball stats were similar. So really the mid range throws are the difference.

Burrow's comp % is 3.3% higher. His YPA is a full yard higher. His passer rating is 5.1 points better. He even has a higher grade from PFF, albeit by a slight margin (0.4).

As far as the media love, maybe we just go to different sites and watch different shows? I rarely see anybody talk about Herbert. Joe always comes up. I've seen him compared to Montana, Brady, etc.

(11-30-2021, 03:57 PM)motoarch Wrote: Not disrespect taken or given. Friendly, healthy debate.

I'm not saying Herbert is better but a simple search for QB rankings on all the major sports websites will show that Herbert is generally considered better and has been for a along time.  Again I'm not saying I agree with them just that that's what the majority of sports writers think.

He's made up ground on Herbert in many of there eyes but still ranked below.

I think Burrow is underrated by the media but that will change this weekend when the Bengals woop the Chargers.

Even if it's not true that most think Herbert is better and you and I are looking at very different media outlets so we're seeing a different consensus I don't think it's a clear cut burrow is better or Herbert is.  It's still very very close.

I stoked to see them head to head this weekend.

Tbh I did just search QB rankings for this week and the first 4 I clicked all had Herbert ahead of Burrow. Maybe they haven't paid as much attention this year and are clinging to what happened last year? Burrow has outplayed Herbert in 2021. Not by a mile or anything, but enough to notice.

Of course, you also have the LA vs Cincy markets...but I swear it seems like Burrow and the Bengals are a topic far more often than the Chargers and Herbert. Now I'm confused.