Mixon is the reason this team is successful this year..

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(11-30-2021, 11:06 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: To your first point, I could probably look into that. The play-by-play library I use has air_yards as a column, so I could filter a dataset on air_yards <= 1 yard and throw those in with the run data. 

To your second point, this would be something that we could see. In my dataset from 2010-current, I am working with roughly 400k plays. We would be able to see a stronger relationship one way or another. I could break it down into groups based on run game effectiveness and study passing numbers for the game immediately after a big rushing game. Regardless, I don't think we will find anything there, either. A defensive coordinator is much more afraid of Burrow and co. than Mixon. Run games, by nature, tend to be inconsistent. Now, some of them are more consistent than others (Taylor, Chubb). A strong passing game also has a higher correlation to winning games than rushing does.

I'm sure the DC for the Chargers will have situations to handle the run, that will be normal, but I would also wager a bet that the gameplan is going to be centered around slowing the passing attack down. Passing is just significantly more dangerous than running. If a team can hold Burrow to a game like these past two games, they will take their chances with the running game. They will have installed run fits to help contain the rushing attack, but bringing eight men into the box isn't as common as many think. 

EDIT - What specifically are you meaning by Air Coryell? Are you genuinely talking about Air Coryell passing concepts, or just heavy passing teams?

EDIT #2 - I ran the numbers for your first point. The correlations actually become weaker. I took all passes that traveled one yard or less in the air and gathered metrics on those, adding them to the rushing data. Then, I ran the same tests and here were the results...

New YPC to Passer Rating - Very weak relationship, less than 1% of the variation in passer rating can be explained here.

New YPC to YPA - Genuinely ZERO relationship. Correlation coefficient of 0.01. Zero percent of the variation in YPA numbers can be explained by this new YPC number. 

Air Coryell is just an example of a pass heavy offense. So Marino Era Dolphins may not have been a Coryell offense, but would also be what I'm driving at, which is that to achieve the ultimate goal, an offense must be competent in the run game.