12-14-2021, 12:30 AM
(12-13-2021, 10:40 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: Is 7 a lot? I feel like 7 isn't a lot. I mean, it is tied for 1st in the NFL, but I feel like that's still not a lot.
I think it's when he drops that makes it seem worse than it is.
It’s a ratio issue. He has nine drops, not seven. With 98 targets, that is roughly a 9% drop rate. Out of those nine drops, three of them are touchdowns (that I can remember). If the sample size of an NFL season was bigger, it would be less of an issue but a single missed play can have a huge impact. I’m also skeptical of the numbers that PFR is putting out - I think he has more. They have him down for nine drops this season, but zero against San Francisco. I have him with two drops against San Francisco, the dropped third down pass early and the dropped touchdown. Even if you want to call the TD an iffy call, he cleanly dropped one early.
Now, he isn’t quite as bad as many think - he has the 4th worst drop rate among WRs in the NFL. He is also offsetting those drops with his production, kind of like Burrow and his INTs. Has Burrow thrown a lot of INTs this year? Yes, but he has been offsetting those TDs with high production, so it’s a net positive. The frustration stems from the missed opportunities. Chase would likely have over 1150 yards and 13 TDs if he was mor sure handed, and the Bengals would potentially have one or two more victories.
