12-20-2021, 11:56 AM
I think the question becomes "are they winning BECAUSE they are throwing it less, or are they throwing it less BECAUSE they are winning?" I would believe it is the latter, especially in the case of yesterdays game. Looking at total offensive production, the Bengals had 249 yards and 15 points - whatever the offensive formula for that performance is shouldn't be celebrated, in my opinion. Only the Jets, Saints and Steelers produced less yards than Cincinnati this week.
For instance, 118 of Burrow's 492 dropbacks this season have come when the Bengals are ahead by greater than three points. On the flip side of that coin, Cincinnati has ran the ball 349 times this season - 120 of those rushes have come when the Bengals are ahead by 3 points. So, 23% of Burrow's dropbacks and 34% of the Bengals rush attempts have come when they have a > 3 point lead. When the Bengals are ahead by greater than 7 points, Burrow has only dropped back 49 times and the Bengals have rushed the ball 75 times. Having a positive score differential allows you to be more conservative with your playcalling, but that's a rather obvious statement. Here are the Bengals ranks when it comes to QB dropbacks with various point differentials...
> 3 lead - 16th
> 7 lead - 21st
> 10 lead - 19th
I don't think this is what you're saying, necessarily, but throwing the ball LESS and running the ball MORE shouldn't be the way to go, especially not with Burrow and the weapons this team has. Cincinnati is a bottom of the league rushing offense whereas they are a top of the league passing offense. There IS a correlation to more victories when Burrow drops back less but that is only because Cincinnati is becoming more conservative in their playcalling when they build a lead, not because the run game is carrying the team to victory or anything. Here are the Bengals dropbacks, broken down by week...
Week 1 - 31
Week 2 - 33
Week 3 - 19
Week 4 - 33
Week 5 - 43
Week 6 - 36
Week 7 - 37
Week 8 - 38
Week 9 - 45
Week 11 - 34
Week 12 - 28
Week 13 - 46
Week 14 - 40
Week 15 - 29
The 30 attempts number is just a symptom of the Bengals pass-blocking and Burrow scrambling - it obviously isn't some wall that has unlocked the secret to victory. They are calling around 34-35 pass plays per game and attempts are just varying based on that.
For instance, 118 of Burrow's 492 dropbacks this season have come when the Bengals are ahead by greater than three points. On the flip side of that coin, Cincinnati has ran the ball 349 times this season - 120 of those rushes have come when the Bengals are ahead by 3 points. So, 23% of Burrow's dropbacks and 34% of the Bengals rush attempts have come when they have a > 3 point lead. When the Bengals are ahead by greater than 7 points, Burrow has only dropped back 49 times and the Bengals have rushed the ball 75 times. Having a positive score differential allows you to be more conservative with your playcalling, but that's a rather obvious statement. Here are the Bengals ranks when it comes to QB dropbacks with various point differentials...
> 3 lead - 16th
> 7 lead - 21st
> 10 lead - 19th
I don't think this is what you're saying, necessarily, but throwing the ball LESS and running the ball MORE shouldn't be the way to go, especially not with Burrow and the weapons this team has. Cincinnati is a bottom of the league rushing offense whereas they are a top of the league passing offense. There IS a correlation to more victories when Burrow drops back less but that is only because Cincinnati is becoming more conservative in their playcalling when they build a lead, not because the run game is carrying the team to victory or anything. Here are the Bengals dropbacks, broken down by week...
Week 1 - 31
Week 2 - 33
Week 3 - 19
Week 4 - 33
Week 5 - 43
Week 6 - 36
Week 7 - 37
Week 8 - 38
Week 9 - 45
Week 11 - 34
Week 12 - 28
Week 13 - 46
Week 14 - 40
Week 15 - 29
The 30 attempts number is just a symptom of the Bengals pass-blocking and Burrow scrambling - it obviously isn't some wall that has unlocked the secret to victory. They are calling around 34-35 pass plays per game and attempts are just varying based on that.
