12-22-2021, 05:14 PM
(12-22-2021, 04:31 PM)Savagehenry54 Wrote: One can make numbers say damn near anything they want.
A strong run game can absolutely carry the day for a team especially in the playoffs. Thats not to say that with how the game is called now that it happens as often as it used to.
Running the football still can and often still does have a huge impact on the game.
You can, but I'm not. All I am doing is gathering rush data for 2020 playoff games and using a binary indicator to signify whether the team won or lost. That's it, it isn't some magic. Out of the below list, who do you think won their games?
A - 163 yards @ 5.43 yards per carry
B - 129 yards @ 7.16 yards per carry
C - 107 yards @ 6.29 yards per carry
D - 123 yards @ 5.12 yards per carry
E - 112 yards @ 5.09 yards per carry
F - 136 yards @ 5.44 yards per carry
A strong run game will be defeated by a strong passing game the vast majority of the time - there is a reason why nearly every single team in the NFL throws more than they run. One, it is more effective and two, a strong passing game better correlates to success. Now, to be clear, I'm not saying that a running game is completely worthless. What I am saying is that you don't need a strong running game to have playoff success, and the data so far (a very limited dataset) suggests that a strong running game doesn't do much for your chances of victory - a strong passing game and defense, however, does.
