01-04-2022, 04:32 PM
(01-04-2022, 03:19 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The Chiefs play the Broncos on Saturday. For this exercise, let's assume they win that game. That eliminates the Bengals from the #1 seed. So now the only options are the 2 through 4 seeds.
The Titans play the Texans at the same time as we play the Browns. I think it's a safe assumption that Tennessee isn't upset with the #1 seed on the line by the Texans, so the #1 and #2 seed are most likely (let's call it 85 to 90% chance) set at Tennessee followed by Kansas City.
The most likely wild card teams (and AFC East winner) are the Chargers, Colts, Patriots and Bills. Unless both the Patriots and the Bills lose to the Dolphins and Jets, respectively, which is unlikely, there will be a 3rd 11 win team in the division winners.
If we beat the Browns, we are also an 11 game winner and likely 3rd seed, unless Buffalo loses and New England wins, in which case we're the 4th seed, with NE at 3rd.
Now, with all that groundwork laid, who we play in the wild card round is pretty hard to determine. Whether we sit in the 3rd or 4th seed depends on other teams and who falls into those 5th and 6th seeds also depends on other teams, so I don't want to focus on who our wild card opponent may be based on our seed. What I want to do, cautiously, is to look forward to the divisional round.
If we do win our wild card game and advance to the divisional round, if we're the 3rd seed, chances are we are going to go up against the Kansas City Chiefs, the 2nd seed. This is because the #1 seed will get the lower seeded team that advances from the wildcard round and that can't be the 3rd seed in any circumstance.
If we're the 4th seed, however, we have a fairly good chance at avoiding Kansas City in the divisional round, because the 3rd seed team, whether it be Buffalo or New England, will have to play KC if they advance. The only way we'd have to play Kansas City is if the 3rd seed is upset in the wild card round. That's definitely possible but I'd give it a less than 50% chance. And >50% is better odds than 0% (if we were the 3rd seed) to avoid Kansas City in the divisional round.
For that reason, am I crazy for thinking we should just rest our starters against Cleveland and accept the loss to ensure we get that #4 seed and increase the chances we avoid KC?
As for why I want to avoid KC, I think we have a better shot against Tennessee (who we beat last year, if you remember, with a worse team when they were less injured) than repeating last Sunday's performance against the Chiefs. It's not that I doubt Joe, but you want the easiest path in the playoffs to ensure you get the farthest. And avoiding KC until the AFCC game gives them 2 opportunities to be upset and giving us an easier opponent to beat in order to reach the Super Bowl.
Maybe I'm just thinking way too far ahead and/or am scared of KC taking revenge on us, but getting something like Indy -> Tennessee > KC/NE to get into the Superbowl seems much better than hitting KC in the 2nd round.
The 4th seed only has a 25% chance of playing the 1st seed in the second round if they advance. They only way they do is if both 2 and 3 also win.
5th seed right now is NE, who would play the 4th seed. I would avoid that matchup like the plague.
