01-05-2022, 01:33 AM
(01-04-2022, 07:36 PM)BRM13 Wrote: I was a little bit worried about Burrow's age coming out of LSU. The reason that teams pay so much attention to age is that is correlated with a player's ceiling. This is on average, of course, but it matters. An example from baseball: players offensive production peaks around 27. So a good year out of a 22 year old (think Juan Soto or Mike Trout) is different than out of a 27 year old (he likely won't get better), Soto probably will and Trout did. Same thing has been observed in most sports (different ages, but same idea). Superstars mostly emerge younger, peak higher, and are good longer. This also explains the obsession with age in the NBA draft.
How this applies to Bengals, Burrow, and this anonymous quote: Burrow was not Heisman Joe until he was 23, instead of at, say, 21. So, the concern is that his peak won't be as high as if he had emerged a couple of years younger. Two things. First, the age/peak correlation is on average. Burrow might well be an exception. Choosing to claim he's not after the last two weeks (as the anonymous quote implicitly does) is poor timing at best. Really sounds like sour grapes. Second, what if it is true that Burrow won't get a lot better? This is where I eventually came down prior to drafting Burrow. Even if he has less 'room to grow' his peak is damn high already. As a previous poster put it, stack up 12 of these seasons and he's going to Canton. So, IMHO the anonymous quote is based on a truism in sports (truly great players generally aren't late bloomers; there are age cycles that most players careers track) but Burrow doesn't have to get much better to be truly elite, so it doesn't matter that much. Based on YPA he is elite right now.
Btw, this works in our favor with Jamarr Chase. Dude is 21! He was already dominant in college at 19. He has the potential for a very long, exceptional HOF-worthy career if he doesn't get hurt.
I've just rode with the idea that Joe Burrow is a late bloomer, but maybe... just maybe... There are some other circumstances at play. He red shirted at a school that already had a logjam at the QB position. The decision to go with a different guy was made by a guy (who for all of his college greatness) produced one NFL QB. That same coach has also demonstrated serious lapses of good judgement in a multitude of ways over the years. Now Burrow has to transfer, and start all over again. Food for thought I guess.
