01-06-2022, 11:31 AM
(01-06-2022, 11:04 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: This is just wrong.
You are basically saying penalties don't hurt your team and lessen the chance of winning. This is just 100% false. You're seriously trying to tell me that a team has the same or better percentage of picking up a 1st and 20 after a holding call than a 1st and 10? Cmon man.
Maybe it's possible other things happen to the most penalized teams that cause them to win? Causation <> Correlation.
You're notorious for throwing out surface level stats without digging any deeper. That's like me saying "most car accidents happen within 15 miles of a person's house, that's more dangerous than driving long distances." Well yeah, because that's where people do the most driving.
He's right. What kills you is situational penalties. I've lined up several years of penalty data along with win % and tried to find correlations and everything is either very weak or nonexistent. If you are looking at penalties alone and want to predict the winningest teams, you're better off just throwing a dart at a wall of logos. The other things happening is that good teams can generally overcome penalty issues, generally. Not always, and situational penalties are killers (take the Chiefs penalties against Cincinnati this weekend as an example) but having more or less penalties as a whole doesn't seem to affect your win % much.
