01-24-2022, 11:37 AM
Since that week 14 game, Cincinnati is 3rd in passing % with a 68/32 split. Kansas City is right on their heels with a 67/33 split. In that same timespan, they are 6th in EPA per dropback, even accounting for sacks. On the rushing side, they are 21st in EPA per rush attempt. This including the playoff games as well.
They haven't completely abandoned the run, but they are embracing the identity of this team and that is to be a team that throws the ball all over the yard. This team simply does not have a good enough run game to keep Mahomes off the field and on top of that, rushing isn't very important in the playoffs. By far the biggest predictor of playoff success is passing performance. It isn't even close. There was a lot of this logic going around for the Raiders game, that Cincinnati had to be a run heavy team to beat LV and neutralize Maxx. Then, the passing offense plays fantastic and the running game lays a dud while Cincinnati ran a 63/37 split.
The only key to victory, IMO, is to let the passing game cook. Yes, I agree, don't COMPLETELY abandon the run (as in, don't pass 100% of the time) but this game won't be won by trying to run the ball. It's the playoffs where QB and passing performance is king, the Bengals have the best chance by keeping the ball in Burrow's hands and keep doing what they are doing.
They haven't completely abandoned the run, but they are embracing the identity of this team and that is to be a team that throws the ball all over the yard. This team simply does not have a good enough run game to keep Mahomes off the field and on top of that, rushing isn't very important in the playoffs. By far the biggest predictor of playoff success is passing performance. It isn't even close. There was a lot of this logic going around for the Raiders game, that Cincinnati had to be a run heavy team to beat LV and neutralize Maxx. Then, the passing offense plays fantastic and the running game lays a dud while Cincinnati ran a 63/37 split.
The only key to victory, IMO, is to let the passing game cook. Yes, I agree, don't COMPLETELY abandon the run (as in, don't pass 100% of the time) but this game won't be won by trying to run the ball. It's the playoffs where QB and passing performance is king, the Bengals have the best chance by keeping the ball in Burrow's hands and keep doing what they are doing.
