01-30-2022, 02:26 AM
I was thinking for a while this evening as I reviewed various bits relating to the Chiefs' 2021 season, and I found myself wondering to what extent they have earned their current image as this sort of unbeatable monstrosity. I believe there's a decent argument available to us that the Bengals are, to put it flatly, a better football team than the Chiefs are. Obviously a counter-argument can be made, and if Chiefs snoopers out there want to scream at their computers as they read this they are welcome to do so. I think this case is a valid one though, and my confidence has only grown. I feel pretty damned good about this game. Here are three separate arguments that can be integrated if you like for a stronger case.
Are you a strength of schedule person? The Chiefs wins this regular season came against: Browns, Eagles, WFT, [Giants, Packers, Raiders x2, Cowboys, Broncos x2, Chargers, Steelers]
--- The teams contained in brackets reflect the second half "surge" the Chiefs enjoyed, winning 8 of 9.
--- Absolutely none of those wins is impressive. Even the Packers win was a 6-point squeaker against Jordan Love.
--- This means the Chiefs have won one game all year that I think qualifies as a "great win" -- last week's divisional playoff win over the Bills. And they were 13 seconds and maybe a squib kick short of losing that game.
The Bengals' wins are comparable in the regular season, with what I'd call two "great wins" overall -- over the Chiefs themselves and in the divisional playoffs over the Titans.
Are you a person that prefers to compare position groups? I think all of the following are reasonable takes:
Quarterback -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Running back -- Bengals > Chiefs
Offensive line -- Chiefs > Bengals
Wide receivers and tight ends -- Bengals > Chiefs
Defensive line -- Bengals = Chiefs
Linebackers -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Secondary -- Bengals > Chiefs
Special teams -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
I place these inequality symbols with only a mind for objective production and past trends. Do you think Joe Burrow can hang with Patrick Mahomes in a postseason game? Do you think Evan McPherson can hang with Harrison Butker? I do. If you believe in things like that, then the Bengals are at least Kansas City's equal in summation. I don't personally care for this kind of comparison, but it's not entirely invalid.
Are you a matchups-oriented person?
Kansas City's secondary has faced strong arrays of offensive weaponry I'd count... seven times this season. They were:
L 36-35 @ Baltimore (481 yards allowed; 251 rushing)
L 30-24 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (352 yards allowed, 275 passing)
L 38-20 vs. Buffalo (436 yards allowed, 315 passing)
W 19-9 vs. Dallas (276 yards allowed, 194 passing)
W 34-28 @ Chargers (428 yards allowed, 236 passing, 192 rushing)
L 34-31 @ Cincinnati (475 yards allowed, 415 passing)
W 42-36 vs. Buffalo (422 yards allowed, 313 passing)
--- Count 'em up, and the Chiefs were 3-4 in those games. They allowed 400+ yards in 5 of those games. Their absolute worst defensive performance came against the absolute best arsenal of weapons (ours, bitches). The Kansas City defense has been hot garbage most of the season. In some of these they got dominated in the defensive backfield, and others they got chewed up on the ground. In only ONE of these games did they hold their opponent under 28 points, and that was against the Cowboys -- not something that means much to me.
--- So as bad as the Bengals offensive line has been, there hasn't been nearly enough attention directed at how bad the Kansas City secondary has been. Tyrann Mathieu is a good player, but the rest of that unit offers very little resistance to quality receiving talent. They were horrible in our last matchup, and clearly that wasn't a fluke. They're just bad.
--- The Bengals' biggest weakness, clearly the offensive line in pass protection, was exposed badly against the Titans (10th in the league in sacks). The Chiefs (29th in sacks) will be hard-pressed to replicate or even approach the sack production that the Titans managed. They may managed to pressure Joe Burrow a decent amount, but... well he kills it under pressure. Be my guest.
--- The Chiefs are a blitz-heavy team. Joe Burrow murders the blitz. The Chiefs are a man-coverage defense predominantly. Joe Burrow murders man coverage.
--- The Bengals' secondary has designed itself to deal with star-driven offensive opponents. Chidobe Awuzie was great against Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill the first time. Tre Flowers has been a marked improvement in tight end coverage. Bell played like a fringe Pro Bowler much of the season, and Bates has been one of their best players overall in the postseason.
--- We can answer their Creed Humphrey advantage with our DJ Reader advantage.
--- Hubbard is an extremely disciplined edge player who is well-suited to deal with Mahomes' escapability. He's the kind of player that you need in this matchup to prevent Mahomes from killing you all game with his legs as he did the Bills. Hubbard really emphasizes a sort of edge mush rush and can engage multiple gaps.
This post is big enough. You get the point. I think the Bengals are going to win this game because that's just what they do this year. I don't really give a crap who they're opposed by. But there are solid arguments there for anyone that draws strength from them.
Are you a strength of schedule person? The Chiefs wins this regular season came against: Browns, Eagles, WFT, [Giants, Packers, Raiders x2, Cowboys, Broncos x2, Chargers, Steelers]
--- The teams contained in brackets reflect the second half "surge" the Chiefs enjoyed, winning 8 of 9.
--- Absolutely none of those wins is impressive. Even the Packers win was a 6-point squeaker against Jordan Love.
--- This means the Chiefs have won one game all year that I think qualifies as a "great win" -- last week's divisional playoff win over the Bills. And they were 13 seconds and maybe a squib kick short of losing that game.
The Bengals' wins are comparable in the regular season, with what I'd call two "great wins" overall -- over the Chiefs themselves and in the divisional playoffs over the Titans.
Are you a person that prefers to compare position groups? I think all of the following are reasonable takes:
Quarterback -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Running back -- Bengals > Chiefs
Offensive line -- Chiefs > Bengals
Wide receivers and tight ends -- Bengals > Chiefs
Defensive line -- Bengals = Chiefs
Linebackers -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
Secondary -- Bengals > Chiefs
Special teams -- Chiefs ≥ Bengals
I place these inequality symbols with only a mind for objective production and past trends. Do you think Joe Burrow can hang with Patrick Mahomes in a postseason game? Do you think Evan McPherson can hang with Harrison Butker? I do. If you believe in things like that, then the Bengals are at least Kansas City's equal in summation. I don't personally care for this kind of comparison, but it's not entirely invalid.
Are you a matchups-oriented person?
Kansas City's secondary has faced strong arrays of offensive weaponry I'd count... seven times this season. They were:
L 36-35 @ Baltimore (481 yards allowed; 251 rushing)
L 30-24 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (352 yards allowed, 275 passing)
L 38-20 vs. Buffalo (436 yards allowed, 315 passing)
W 19-9 vs. Dallas (276 yards allowed, 194 passing)
W 34-28 @ Chargers (428 yards allowed, 236 passing, 192 rushing)
L 34-31 @ Cincinnati (475 yards allowed, 415 passing)
W 42-36 vs. Buffalo (422 yards allowed, 313 passing)
--- Count 'em up, and the Chiefs were 3-4 in those games. They allowed 400+ yards in 5 of those games. Their absolute worst defensive performance came against the absolute best arsenal of weapons (ours, bitches). The Kansas City defense has been hot garbage most of the season. In some of these they got dominated in the defensive backfield, and others they got chewed up on the ground. In only ONE of these games did they hold their opponent under 28 points, and that was against the Cowboys -- not something that means much to me.
--- So as bad as the Bengals offensive line has been, there hasn't been nearly enough attention directed at how bad the Kansas City secondary has been. Tyrann Mathieu is a good player, but the rest of that unit offers very little resistance to quality receiving talent. They were horrible in our last matchup, and clearly that wasn't a fluke. They're just bad.
--- The Bengals' biggest weakness, clearly the offensive line in pass protection, was exposed badly against the Titans (10th in the league in sacks). The Chiefs (29th in sacks) will be hard-pressed to replicate or even approach the sack production that the Titans managed. They may managed to pressure Joe Burrow a decent amount, but... well he kills it under pressure. Be my guest.
--- The Chiefs are a blitz-heavy team. Joe Burrow murders the blitz. The Chiefs are a man-coverage defense predominantly. Joe Burrow murders man coverage.
--- The Bengals' secondary has designed itself to deal with star-driven offensive opponents. Chidobe Awuzie was great against Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill the first time. Tre Flowers has been a marked improvement in tight end coverage. Bell played like a fringe Pro Bowler much of the season, and Bates has been one of their best players overall in the postseason.
--- We can answer their Creed Humphrey advantage with our DJ Reader advantage.
--- Hubbard is an extremely disciplined edge player who is well-suited to deal with Mahomes' escapability. He's the kind of player that you need in this matchup to prevent Mahomes from killing you all game with his legs as he did the Bills. Hubbard really emphasizes a sort of edge mush rush and can engage multiple gaps.
This post is big enough. You get the point. I think the Bengals are going to win this game because that's just what they do this year. I don't really give a crap who they're opposed by. But there are solid arguments there for anyone that draws strength from them.
