02-11-2022, 03:17 PM
(02-11-2022, 02:26 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: What chance did they give us for beating KC? What chance to make the Super Bowl? None of that matters. Bengals keep winning against all the odds people throw out there. They have a 50% chance of winning the Super Bowl. One of only two teams with any chance.
That isn't how that works. Just because a model says "XYZ team has 20% chance of winning" and then that team wins doesn't mean that it doesn't matter. It could just mean that the team hit on their 20%. I am not familiar with 538's model, so I have no idea how good it is. However, LA is a better team than Cincinnati. It isn't a crazy difference, but they are better and the Bengals being underdogs again is of no surprise. They definitely don't have a 50% chance of victory, though.
Using the Vegas spread, Cincinnati has a 33% chance of victory. Just because it is unlikely doesn't mean that it is impossible. I'm sure if you played this game 100 times, the Rams would win the majority. Cincinnati only needs to win once, though, and they can.
