02-11-2022, 04:11 PM
(02-11-2022, 03:59 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: There are 1000+ plays for each team during a season and a wide variety of metrics to choose from to get your overall WP prediction, and this data is aggregated and used over the course of seasons.
I think this is the problem. I believe this sort of frequentist (or even Bayesian) approach is fundamentally flawed in that it is not (or is barely) data-structure-sensitive, and I believe the entire premise of a model needs to be adapted to one that is minimally- or non-parametric based upon relational structures within the data set not so reliant upon sample size. It's difficult to explain precisely what I mean without writing a dissertation, so oh well.
In any event, I don't think it's possible to accurately project an NFL team's "chance to win". I don't believe probabilities are even applicable.
