The Bengals Have a 32% Chance of Winning the Superbowl

[leonardfan40]

(02-11-2022, 03:17 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: That isn't how that works. Just because a model says "XYZ team has 20% chance of winning" and then that team wins doesn't mean that it doesn't matter. It could just mean that the team hit on their 20%. I am not familiar with 538's model, so I have no idea how good it is. However, LA is a better team than Cincinnati. It isn't a crazy difference, but they are better and the Bengals being underdogs again is of no surprise. They definitely don't have a 50% chance of victory, though. 

Using the Vegas spread, Cincinnati has a 33% chance of victory. Just because it is unlikely doesn't mean that it is impossible. I'm sure if you played this game 100 times, the Rams would win the majority. Cincinnati only needs to win once, though, and they can. 

Who’s to say the Rams are better? More talented roster maybe, but better right now? Which team is PLAYING better right now? How does each teams rhythm factor in? What about confidence? What about nerves of each individual? What about their coaches schemes lately vs early in the season? What about players and coaches effort? What about extra time to prepare and heal? What about situational play calling right now for the last month vs the whole year? Teams are constantly evolving and growing. People are constantly growing and learning. Using a flawed model based on an already short season that can’t factor in all the nuances of the game is meaningless.

Must be a cakewalk getting paid to put meaningless percentages on games . I can do that too! Bengals have a 99% chance of winning vs Rams 1%. If Rams win I’m not wrong, my model isn’t wrong, the Rams just hit on that 1%

In the real world the bengals have a 50/50 shot no matter what a bunch of math nerds say. These percentages mean absolutely nothing. You don’t have to win 100,000 games/simulations. It’s one game. If they played 100,000 times in real life maybe the 32% would mean something and be remotely close. No way of knowing though so it doesn’t matter. It’s one game with two possible outcomes. Neither team gets to start with more points or more players on the field.