02-11-2022, 06:02 PM
To put my view simply:
Model X gives Team A a 95% chance to beat Team B.
Team B wins.
We have two clear options to describe this event:
1) Team B fell within its 5% interval, and the model was fair.
2) The model sucks.
I think #2 is true at least as often as #1.
Model X gives Team A a 95% chance to beat Team B.
Team B wins.
We have two clear options to describe this event:
1) Team B fell within its 5% interval, and the model was fair.
2) The model sucks.
I think #2 is true at least as often as #1.
