The Bengals Have a 32% Chance of Winning the Superbowl

[Interceptor]

(02-11-2022, 02:01 PM)Science Friction Wrote: Or so says the statistical model of Nate Silver, Jay Boice, and Neil Payne of  fivethirtyeight.com  .

Their model uses something called an Elo rating ,  a measure based on head-to head results and quality of opponent. Here are the Elo's for their top eight NFL teams. (Ratings were last updated after the Rams-49'ers NFC title game)

KC                   1701
Buffalo             1669
LA Rams           1656
Green Bay        1645
Tampa Bay       1634
SF                   1615
Cincinnati         1606
Dallas              1600


So, Nate's model  says it's   68%  to  32%  in favor of the Rams  .

Pretty similar numbers to another projection they made on Nov, 8, 2016 :   Check it out.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/