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The Bengals Have a 32% Chance of Winning the Superbowl
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(02-11-2022, 03:17 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: That isn't how that works. Just because a model says "XYZ team has 20% chance of winning" and then that team wins doesn't mean that it doesn't matter. It could just mean that the team hit on their 20%. I am not familiar with 538's model, so I have no idea how good it is. However, LA is a better team than Cincinnati. It isn't a crazy difference, but they are better and the Bengals being underdogs again is of no surprise. They definitely don't have a 50% chance of victory, though. 

Using the Vegas spread, Cincinnati has a 33% chance of victory. Just because it is unlikely doesn't mean that it is impossible. I'm sure if you played this game 100 times, the Rams would win the majority. Cincinnati only needs to win once, though, and they can. 

Im only a wrong if I say "100 percent"....and I never keep it 100....said every analytics guy ever.

Based on shit from the past, this happens this many times so then blah yada blah.....and of course everything will continue to happen at that rate if you base what you do off our algorithms based on when no one did any of that....it makes perfect sense and if it don't work we were still right cuz were only wrong 64 percent of the time its cloudy with a chance of meatballs.
Being a Bengals fan is like being in love with a narcissist.  It's a brutal, emotionally abusive relationship but I never leave and just keep making excuses for them.
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RE: The Bengals Have a 32% Chance of Winning the Superbowl - Savagehenry54 - 02-12-2022, 07:02 AM

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