02-12-2022, 11:18 AM
(02-12-2022, 11:08 AM)Synric Wrote: I disagree and always will because your numbers are skewed by spread shotgun teams like the Bill's and Chiefs that have a high play action percentage but do it mostly because of the design. They will even pretend to hand it off when the running back runs the other way on a swing route.
Play-action does work, and it works well. Play-action doesn't work well because your running game is working well, though. Passing performance doesn't correlate to running performance. Play-action works because the threat of a run exists, they have to play their run fits. If a team is showing run (whether it be genuine or a PA fake) and the defense doesn't play their run fits, then the offense runs the ball down their throat.
For every team that has a good run game and a good play-action pass game, I can show you a team that has a bad run game and good play-action pass game. You can take the inverse of that, too.
Joe Burrow ranked 2nd in YPA on play-action passes despite Cincinnati having an inconsistent/below average run game.
Derek Carr was 7th in YPA on play-action passes despite the Raiders having an inconsistent/below average run game.
Zach Wilson ranked next to last in YPA on play-action passing despite the Jets having an above average run game.
Carson Wentz was solidly middle of the pack despite Indy having the best run game in the league.
The examples continue. I'm not sure if that addresses your point, I think you're arguing that a good run game makes your PA passing better, but it doesn't. You don't see PA passing improve if you have a strong run game.
