Are we being realistic with Free Agency expectations?

[*ochocincos*]

(02-17-2022, 03:44 PM)casear2727 Wrote: CincyWestside made an interesting post in the thread "The minimum for me to be satisfied".

His take seems to cover a majority of the posters here and on twitter. I thought it would be interesting to see how these numbers work.

First, sign Bates long term. Front load the contract so we are hampered when it comes time to pay Burrow, Chase, and Higgins.

Second, sign CJ. Great team leader and provides adaquate production from the TE considering the WR group we have.

Third, sign either Ogunjobi or Hill. I prefer Og, but if he gets too pricey then divert that to Hill. Or if both are cheap enough, then sign both.

Fourth, see if Gronk is serious about playing with Burrow. He'd be great to use in redzone and late game situations. He might enjoy it more when he's not leaned on as much as the Pats and Bucs needed him to do.

Fifth, rebuild the OL in FA. No more drafting players to fill OL holes. We have a bad record of it. I prefer maybe 1 top tier OL FA (pricey) and then 2 solid ones. I trust Zac to find guys who fit our system like he did last offseason.


Sign Bates, CJ, Hill, Gronk, 1 Top OL, 2 Solid OL totals around $78M and that is without front loading Bates.

$78M is more than we have after cutting Waynes, zero for the draft, and we still need to sign/replace 13 more players:

Larry Ogunjobi
Josh Tupou
Vernon Hargreaves
Kevin Huber
Brandon Allen
Clark Harris
Eli Apple
Jordan Evans
Mike Thomas
Jalen Davis
Tre Flowers
Darius Phillips
Auden Tate

It is crazy how fast the dollars add up and this is with our our LBers and offensive stars still on rookie contracts.  We might need to temper our expectations for this offseason and be prepared for some tough biz decisions down the road once the rookie contracts expire.

I am sure we can all find more savings but this is the data I used:

Signing Bates longterm to meet his terms as one of the highest paid safeties is $16M - 18M

CJ is projected to be at $8.3M

Hill is projected to be at 8.75M.  Ogunjobi prior to injury was projected higher than Hill.

Gronk was paid $8M this past season.

1 top tier Oline.   Armstead (T) 20M, Scherff (G) 17M, Jensen (C.) 13M.  (used 17M avg for calculation, replaced Reiff on player list)

2 solid oline.   T Brown (T) 10M, Moses (T) 8M, Tomlinson (G) 9M, Daniels (G) 10M.  (used 19M for calculation, replaced Spain and Johnson on player list)

Bengals will not sign anyone to the OL that will be $12+ mill a year, I don't think.
They'll want to keep a good number of their guys who helped get them to the Super Bowl.
I think they'll aim for getting 1-2 starters via outside FA, and then they'll try to address any further upgrades via the draft.

Priority based on current roster:
- RT (All they have there are Prince and Smith)
- RG (Can't rely on Adeniji or Carman, but at least there's more potential there than RT)
- LG (If Spain isn't re-signed)
- C (Hopkins entering final year of contract, over 30, and not a good run blocker)
- LT (Williams continues to improve but not elite)