03-24-2022, 06:40 PM
Before this season started one of my biggest concerns was Mixon's health. He had only played 6 games in 2020 and had also missed a couple of games in each of his first two seasons.
It was also a concern that he had averaged 20 carries per game in 2020 before getting injured. That would be 340 carries over a 17 game season. FootballOutsiders study that showed that whenever a RB has more than 350 carries in a season he is likely to have problems with injures the next year. So my concerns were both that Mixon had some history of injuries and also that it looked like he might have 340 carries in 2021.
Mixon ended up with a creer high in carries, but it was only 292, but he added another 67 in the postseason. 359 total. However those 359 carries were spread out over 20 games instead of the 16 game seasons FootballOutsiders were analyzing. I don't know if the average per game matters or just the raw total. Mixon still looked healthy in his final game. He held up fine this year, but the question is will his 359 carries make it more likely that he will have problems with injury in 2022.
It should be noted that FootballOutsiders found that "receptions" did not have the same effect on RBs as "carries". A high number of receptions did not seem to wear a RB down as much as the same number of carries. So it is interesting to note that over his last 6 games (Bal and KC in regular season then 4 postseason) Mixon averaged 5.2 receptions but only 16.1 carries. Over a 17 game season that is only 275 carries, but with 88 receptions (363 total).
Mixon sat out the Browns game. If you project his totals from 16 games to 17 games you get almost exactly the same number of total touches (355), but with a lot more carries (310) and fewer receptions (45). Getting Mixon the same number of touches, but with more of them as receptions might help keep him healthy longer.
It was also a concern that he had averaged 20 carries per game in 2020 before getting injured. That would be 340 carries over a 17 game season. FootballOutsiders study that showed that whenever a RB has more than 350 carries in a season he is likely to have problems with injures the next year. So my concerns were both that Mixon had some history of injuries and also that it looked like he might have 340 carries in 2021.
Mixon ended up with a creer high in carries, but it was only 292, but he added another 67 in the postseason. 359 total. However those 359 carries were spread out over 20 games instead of the 16 game seasons FootballOutsiders were analyzing. I don't know if the average per game matters or just the raw total. Mixon still looked healthy in his final game. He held up fine this year, but the question is will his 359 carries make it more likely that he will have problems with injury in 2022.
It should be noted that FootballOutsiders found that "receptions" did not have the same effect on RBs as "carries". A high number of receptions did not seem to wear a RB down as much as the same number of carries. So it is interesting to note that over his last 6 games (Bal and KC in regular season then 4 postseason) Mixon averaged 5.2 receptions but only 16.1 carries. Over a 17 game season that is only 275 carries, but with 88 receptions (363 total).
Mixon sat out the Browns game. If you project his totals from 16 games to 17 games you get almost exactly the same number of total touches (355), but with a lot more carries (310) and fewer receptions (45). Getting Mixon the same number of touches, but with more of them as receptions might help keep him healthy longer.
