Trade Down Mock

[leonardfan40]

(04-12-2022, 05:29 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I don't have Kupp's snap distribution, but doesn't (or didn't) he play primarily in the slot?

As for Kinnard, I'm not sure I'd be able to go back far enough to Kent Lee Platte's tweets, but Kinnard was bad athletically even for an OG. Not just when comparing him to OTs. KLP is the creator of RAS for those that don't know. My nervousness is just about him fitting with what Pollack would look to run.

I've watched Bell, and I think he's slow. He is smooth though. I think he'll be an ok producer, maybe as solid WR3 or maybe WR2 caliber. 600-900 yard per season range. I'd be worried he'll never be a 1000 yard WR. He has a 2.72 RAS. I don't think Combine or Pro Day drills are the end-all, be-all, but man he really bombed it. Big concern.
You mention Kupp, but Kupp at least had good shuttle and 3-cone, which indicates he's able to shift well to get open despite not having long speed. Bell had an abysmal 3-cone and shuttle.
Bell - https://twitter.com/mathbomb/status/1499764540065697796
Kupp - https://twitter.com/mathbomb/status/1247880625656197121?lang=en

For the pass rusher, I'm not a fan of taking just a situational pass rusher that early. If Bengals could find a way to have him play off-ball LB on early downs and rush him on passing downs, I'd be more ok with that.

I'm not going to take a chance that a 5'8" CB is going to be able to play outside CB. I think he can be a good slot guy though.

Kupp started as a slot WR and has evolved into a more well rounder WR especially this year. He’s still his best in the slot but as his route running improved he’s been outside more often and to open up the best matchups. Last year he was almost 50/50 slot/outside (still got most of his yards in the slot).

And I’m not saying Bell is Kupp or anything, just pointing out that 40 time, vert/broad jumps, etc do not determine if a WR will be successful.
Kupp absolutely beats Bell in short area burst which is important, but Bell is a better route runner at this point than Kupp was coming out. Bell won’t do the same things Kupp does but he’s absolutely athletic enough to produce.

The point is, people are putting way too much stock in workout numbers. His weren’t good, but they were good enough to show he can compete at this level if he makes up for it in other aspects of his game. He absolutely has those aspects to his game. Writing him off based on pad-less workouts would not be wise. Used the right way he can absolutely be a very good starting WR in this league. His tape speaks for itself.

Look at his top college performances and matchups:
2020 Greg Newsome (Browns 1st rounder) 9 catches 78 yards in 4 of the other 5 games played that season (covid shortened) he had over 100 yards
2021 Denzel Burke (likely first rounder) 9 catches 76 yards vs Burke and 11 catches 103 yards overall that game.
2021 Iowa 240 yards
2021 MSU 217 yards
2019 Iowa 197 yards and had 100 yard games in 6/12 contests as a true freshman

Treylon Burks workout numbers are pretty comparable to Bell’s. Bell’s tape and production are better. Burks will still be a first rounder most likely while Bell will probably fall to round 3 or later. Acting like one can’t play while the other can is ridiculous but if it plays out that way some team will get a steal.

200 yard games against top ranked college teams are rare, multiple for one player is very rare. Putting up 76+ yards a matchup against first or likely first round CB’s is also a good sign.

You don’t have to agree with me, just getting my thoughts down for a later date.