Joe Goodberry - PFF trends of rookie Guards through Year 3

[Bengalstripes9]

(04-24-2022, 04:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If you look around the NFL you will see that most teams do not draft over a player they took in the second round the year before.  That is because most NFL players improve from their rookie season.  I could provide a list of dozens of very good NFL players who were not good as rookies.  If you keep drafting over second round picks the next year then you are going to be wasting a lot of picks replacing guys that actually develop into solid starters.


The last twenty drafts have produced 17 second round picks that registered a 10+ sack season, but zero did it as a rookie.  

-31 second round picks had a 1000 receiving yard season, but only 3 did it as a rookie.  

-21 second round picks had a 1000 yard rushing season but only 6 did it as a rookie.  

-496 second round picks have had a season where they started at least 9 games, but far less than half of them (200) did it as a rookie.

You just don't draft over a second round pick the next season unless he has some physical/injury problem.

Carmen does have injury concerns though, doesn't he?

I understand that players get better. I do. But a lot of the time you can tell if a player will be above average in the league based purely on what he did as a rookie. 

Carmen certainly could get better. He could become a starting caliber player in this league. But based on what he's shown so far, what would your honest assessment be? Is he a starter in this league based on what we've seen so far? If not, why should we pencil him in at this point. It's a bit pre-mature. 

All I'm saying is that we should be done with penciling in rookies. They've got to earn a spot. Better competition can only improve our line/depth. May the best man win. 

Having more than 5 starting caliber players on our line would be a blessing. It would give us options in the future (potential for trades, etc.). If the best player at 31 is a lineman, I say pull the trigger.

(04-24-2022, 08:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Only two OGs in all of the NFL every year are selected All-Pro.
Just because a player is not an All-Pro doesn't need they need replaced.
Heck, even if someone isn't even a Pro Bowler doesn't mean they need replaced.
A player is "above average" with a grade of 70+, by PFF standards.
A player is "average" with a grade of 60+, by PFF standards.
https://www.si.com/nfl/cardinals/news/pff-player-grades-deserve-scrutiny

The reason I started this thread is I've seen a lot of doom and gloom about Carman, especially since the Bengals didn't add a veteran LG.
I wanted to convey someone's research that they took the time to collect to give optimism that Carman might still end up turning into a solid player.
Given Carman's rating was 56.3 as a rookie (even higher at LG vs RG), I think it's reasonable that he could end up with a 60+ rating either this year or next year.

All I'm saying is he's been garbage so far. A few good blocks here and there but mostly he's been run around or through. Why should we expect him to get better? Did he get better as the year went on this past year or stay the same?

I'm not saying he won't get better. What I'm saying is that we shouldn't expect it. If it happens, that's a bonus. But don't plan on it happening when there's no evidence to back it. He's got to prove himself before you can pencil him in as a starting caliber player. There's a high probability that Carmen won't be an all pro. But let's be serious here, he hasn't even proven that he's an NFL starting caliber lineman. 

We hung on to hopes of Ogbuehi getting better for 3 years and even let Whit go with the expectation that ogbuehi would replace him. Didn't work out. Same deal for a lot of recent olineman draft picks. We can't keep making the same mistakes.

The bottom line is we need depth at oline and a starter at LG--if the bpa is a G/C, you have to make the pick. If the bpa is corner we need depth there too, so make the pick. We should be picking bpa in this draft, whether it be oline, dline, corner, safety, linebacker, tight end. A wr or qb in round 1 would be a bit much, but otherwise everything should be on the table.