05-05-2022, 11:05 PM
(05-05-2022, 08:02 PM)George Cantstandya Wrote: Thanks for the info I always appreciate the data you collect and share. I agree there doesn't seem to be a significant correlation between total penalties and winning. However one thing I wonder about is timing of those penalties. For example what's worse, getting a false start penalty on 2nd and 5 or a false start penalty on 3rd and one? Also where is the team on the field when the penalty happened and what were the conditions in the game? As we have unfortunately seen as Bengals fans (and really most fans of NFL teams) penalties at the worst times are costly. I'm not sure there are team stats for untimely penalties which would be an interesting thing to measure as opposed to total penalties. But if there are such stats I bet you have them. :)
I do have access to data like this. We would have to define what an untimely penalty is, first. I took an initial crack at it and defined an untimely penalty as any penalty that occurs in the 4th quarter in a game within one score. After grabbing the penalty data (I grabbed it per season, per team), I added their losses for that season and then ran a regression.
I am still getting similar results. Using this kind of penalty data, we can explain 0.0006% of the variation in loss totals by way of untimely penalties, or this variation of it. Essentially, no relationship.
