Making the playoffs with 10 or fewer wins

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(05-21-2022, 11:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: From '00 through '20 (21 years of 16 games season and 12 playoff teams) a little over a third (36%) of the teams that made the playoffs had 10 wins or fewer.  Less than half of those teams (45%) returned to the playoffs the next season.  Vegas and the media experts know this and hold it against the Bengals.

But on the other hand, a third of the time (7 times in 21 years) a team that made the playoffs with 10 wins or less made it all the way to the Super Bowl the following season, and four times the team that WON the Super Bowl had made the playoffs the previous season with 10 or fewer wins ('02 Bucs, '07 Giants, '08 Steelers, '21 Rams).

All we have to do is stay reasonably healthy and we should be back.

A lot of us right now will poo poo the percentages about teams that lose the Super Bowl not even returning to the playoffs and with good reason.  So many times, those teams are broken up for a variety of reasons.  They lose top notch coordinators (Bengals didn't).   They lose top notch talent to FA (Bengals didn't).  Their schedule is much tougher (TBD).  

It is easy for us to dismiss the historical numbers, but those are the trends of the teams in our situation in the recent past.  

Personally, I think of the team now vs. the team that struggled so badly against the Bears and I think how the offense is light years ahead of that now.  I think of how the young defense gelled down the stretch, and how they all bought in to Anarumo's schemes.  I even think of how limited the playbook was for ZT (who gets far too little credit for this, but that is a subject for another thread) after losing Reiff.  

Does that mean this year's team goes 14-3 and has home field throughout the playoffs?  I sure hope so, but doubtful.  I think you were dead on about staying "reasonable healthy".  I will add "balanced".  I hope they don't have to rely on Chase getting 100 receptions, or Mixon getting 30 carries a game (I know that is incredibly unlikely, but hear me out).  A balanced team with a solid rotation at receiver (including TE) and RB, will keep everyone fresher and healthier down the stretch.

I sincerely hope we see a lot more of Evans and more rotation on the defensive line with the likes of Tupou, Shelvin, Sample, Kareem, Ossai, and Carter providing a blow for the Hendrickson, Hubbard, Reader, and Hill.  

I was frankly amazed how those guys played with the extra game and so many injuries to the rotational pieces.  They are all heart.  This year, they need to be breathing fire come the post season.  Healthy, rested, and God-willing, with a first round bye.