For Entertainment Purposes ONLY....Some Bets for 2022

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-28-2022, 10:30 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Hey all,

I know I fashion myself as an amateur shark on here, but after last year having Burrow for CPOTY, Chase for OROTY, ZT for COTY (should have won), and the Bengals winning the AFCN, AFC, and Super Bowl....well, to be fair...I do it almost every year, but it happened for the first time this year.

A couple wagers I have some interest in for the 2022 season, in no particular order:

Zac Taylor for COTY.  Currently +3200.  That means a $100 wager pays $3200.  I don't get it.  Brandon Staley is +1500??? Based on what?  Dumb 4th down decisions? This is an award that always seems to be a year behind.  The coach that makes the big postseason run is more in the forefront of everyone's mind the following year.  That is Zac.

Joe Burrow for MVP:  +1500.  Again, like COTY, runs a year behind.  Regular season award.  

Defensive ROTY:  CTB +10000 (yes, $100 would pay $10,000) and Dax Hill +3500.  One is already moving up due to a potential contract dispute and I am in the minority that if a team knocks the Bengals socks off (first round pick), they could trade Bates.  CTB just has to beat out Apple, or have an injury to Apple (not what I want at all..) and he could surprise with what is sure to be a massively improved pass rush.

Bengals to win the Super Bowl:  +2100.  Sure, they stayed healthy last year, but what team in the NFL improved itself more than the Bengals?  They already had the skill positions, and now they have better trenches.

Some wagers I like from around the league:

Sauce Gardner for DROTY:  +900.  We know he will start, and there will be tons of media around the Jets.

Derek Carr for MVP:  +2700.  Really high odds for a guy that will likely be in some shootouts and has some serious weaponry.  I also like the Raiders +570 to win the AFC West.  Everyone is in love with KC, LA, and Denver, but I like the Raiders.  Huge odds to be one of four.  

I also like the Eagles at +3200 to win the Super Bowl and Jalen Hurts +3500 as MVP.  I see Dallas taking a huge step back, and the only other teams in the NFC that are at their level (IMHO) are Tampa and the Rams.   Hurts has the weapons now, and they have a defense.  It could all click for him this year (I am kind of rooting for him, which is usually my downfall...I can't bet on someone like Piggy because I hated him so much) but he could also prove he isn't the guy.  Either way, I see the Eagles as boom or bust.  

Alec Pierce for OROTY +5600.  Will definitely start and has a ton of potential.  Playing in a weak ass conference as well.  

Lastly, I did a wager on the Cowboys to NOT make the playoffs.  It was +240.  I know I just said the NFC doesn't have much outside Philly, Tampa, and LA, but even though their AFC schedule is the AFC South, they still have a first place schedule and face Tampa, the Bengals, and Rams.  I could also see Washington (I always want to call them the Commodores, and have their helmets be big 70s afros) and even the lowly Giants being much tougher this year.  It is like what the Pats now face instead of 6 easy conference wins.  

They don't have the odds yet, but last year I did the "Super Bowl Matchups" wagers with the Bengals against the Packers, Bucs, and Rams.  Yes, that one paid big time.  I will be doing it again with Bengals vs. Eagles, Bucs, and Rams.  I am sure the odds will drop significantly.  I am also do the same wagers with the Raiders.

Do not like any of the highlighted.....

-You say it runs a year behind, but I don't think that's true. 3 of the last 5 winners won it in their first year with their team.

-Neither of the two are currently penned in as starters, and each of the last 4 winners of DROTY had at least 7.0 sacks, and 8 of the last 12 (since 2010) had at least 7.0 sacks. You're best off betting on which rookie you think will have the most sacks. If you're not going to get sacks, you need big INT numbers, and neither of them have a college history of being big INT guys.

-Same reason for Sauce, but at least he has a starting role and a big market, plus he had as many interceptions in college as Dax and CTB combined. If he's going to win against sacks, he will need to pick off a lot of passes.

-I'm not a Derek Carr believer. He already had plenty of weapons throughout the years, and now he's in his 9th year in the NFL and his QB Rating has never been more than 13% above average, and his TD% has been below average in 4 of his last 5 years. He has thrown for 112 TDs in the last 5 years combined with only 1 missed game. That's 22.4 TDs per season, and it isn't like he adds anything with his legs to offset his lack of passing production. He's also 57-70 as a starter, with only 1 winning season out of the last 5. I think there's going to be a whole lot of letdown on how little Devante Adams improves Carr, and how much of a hit Adams numbers take in the Raiders offense. Carr is not Rodgers, and Waller and Renfrow are going to cut into Adams opportunities.

-For the same reason I don't believe in Carr as MVP, I don't believe in the Raiders winning that division. Would be more likely to bet on them to finish last than first. 

-I need to see Hurts be even above average before I ever bet on him to be MVP, and the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl. Also, the Eagles were down 31-0 in the 4th quarter of their "playoff" game, and down 31-7 with 5 minutes left in the game. 


...so I am going to pass on most of your bets. 

I do want to know next February how you ended up doing on all of these, though.