For Entertainment Purposes ONLY....Some Bets for 2022

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(05-28-2022, 04:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Do not like any of the highlighted.....

-You say it runs a year behind, but I don't think that's true. 3 of the last 5 winners won it in their first year with their team.

-Neither of the two are currently penned in as starters, and each of the last 4 winners of DROTY had at least 7.0 sacks, and 8 of the last 12 (since 2010) had at least 7.0 sacks. You're best off betting on which rookie you think will have the most sacks. If you're not going to get sacks, you need big INT numbers, and neither of them have a college history of being big INT guys.

-Same reason for Sauce, but at least he has a starting role and a big market, plus he had as many interceptions in college as Dax and CTB combined. If he's going to win against sacks, he will need to pick off a lot of passes.

-I'm not a Derek Carr believer. He already had plenty of weapons throughout the years, and now he's in his 9th year in the NFL and his QB Rating has never been more than 13% above average, and his TD% has been below average in 4 of his last 5 years. He has thrown for 112 TDs in the last 5 years combined with only 1 missed game. That's 22.4 TDs per season, and it isn't like he adds anything with his legs to offset his lack of passing production. He's also 57-70 as a starter, with only 1 winning season out of the last 5. I think there's going to be a whole lot of letdown on how little Devante Adams improves Carr, and how much of a hit Adams numbers take in the Raiders offense. Carr is not Rodgers, and Waller and Renfrow are going to cut into Adams opportunities.

-For the same reason I don't believe in Carr as MVP, I don't believe in the Raiders winning that division. Would be more likely to bet on them to finish last than first. 

-I need to see Hurts be even above average before I ever bet on him to be MVP, and the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl. Also, the Eagles were down 31-0 in the 4th quarter of their "playoff" game, and down 31-7 with 5 minutes left in the game. 


...so I am going to pass on most of your bets. 

I do want to know next February how you ended up doing on all of these, though.

That's no problem, and you can tell I like long shots.  Last year was huge, this year most likely won't be. 

A few defenses though:  The Eagles and Hurts bets is more of a gut feeling.  Hurts did pretty well last year, but once they ran in to playoff caliber defenses, they were exposed.  Ditto their defense.  I think, however, if you look at what they have done this offseason, they may be the most improved team in football, and in the NFC East, where I feel the Cowboys got worse. 

Once  a team gets to the playoffs like the Eagles this year, I can choose to let it ride (like I did with Cincy through the playoffs) or I can hedge it, and bet against myself.  The payday if the Eagles actually win the Super Bowl is so high, I can bet a good chunk against myself and while I may lose the $100 wager, I might profit $1000 from hedging the bet.  So, it isn't that I believe the Eagles will actually win the big game, and I get nothing if that doesn't happen...it was placing a solid wager that they will win it, and then cashing out big time if they get close.  

I really like Carr and think the +570 for the Raiders to win the AFC West is a solid bet.  He has had so much turmoil on coaches, etc, but now has a more offensive-minded coach and his college buddy Devonte Adams to draw coverage away from Waller and Henry.  They also have two really strong DEs.  I see them a bit like the Manning-led Colts.  They will try to strike early, get a lead, and release the hounds in the pass rush.  Carr is also a first class leader and a great guy.  Lastly, there is a really peculiar trend of teams that relocated making it to the big game a few years after. 

The two Bengals for DROTY are just crazy long shots.  Did the same thing for Ossai last year.  Looked good after one preseason game....