08-23-2022, 02:13 PM
(08-23-2022, 01:58 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: The majority of NFL games are decided by one score. This entire thing is a silly argument to make due to the large number of games that could hinge on one play.
Actually, if you read the article he makes a point of showing that not all games decided by "one score" are as close as they appear. So he just uses the 60 something games where the game was actually decided on one play in the final moments.
The NFL Teams That Made Their Own Luck — And Misfortune — In 2021 | FiveThirtyEight
According to ESPN Stats & Information Group’s win probability model, 66 out of 272 regular-season games in 2021 could truly have gone either way at the finish. (As in my previous article, I defined a “coin-flip game” as having a win-probability split of 60/40 or closer at some point within the last five minutes of the game.)
