08-29-2022, 04:15 PM
(08-29-2022, 03:52 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Since it's a QB who, up til this point, has thrown a LOT of passes that went for 27 yards or more, you can't claim it was luck simply because of the down and distance.
Yes I can when I post facts to back it up.
It has not happened in 4 years.
It had not happened in the last 136 attempts.
It almost never happens. Even among the most skilled and best coached players in the entire league.
And that is exactly how we know luck was involved.
(08-29-2022, 03:52 PM)PhilHos Wrote: That's like saying every game winning TD or FG is due to luck and not skill.
No it is not. That is a complete false equivalency. There have been hundreds of game winning FGs and TDs over the last 4 years, but only ONE conversion of a 3rd-and-25+.
(08-29-2022, 03:52 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Rarity does not equal luck.Yes, both of those records involved a lot of luck. That is why the exact same player with the exact same skill level was never able to repeat them.
Only 1 QB in NFL history has thrown 55 TD passes in the regular season. I guess Peyton Manning was just lucky.
Only 1 QB in NFL history has hit a FG from beyond 65 yards. I guess Justin Tucker was just lucky.
Harbaugh knows Tucker was lucky to hit that 66 yarder. Justin is only 1 of 3 from 60+ for his career. And that is exactly why Harbaugh would not even have attempted that kick if it had not been with just 3 seconds left in the game.
