What Vegas and the National Media is not talking about

[*PhilHos*]

(08-29-2022, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes I can when I post facts to back it up.

It has not happened in 4 years.

It had not happened in the last 136 attempts.

It almost never happens.  Even among the most skilled and best coached players in the entire league.

And that is exactly how we know luck was involved.

First off, you haven't posted facts. You posted stats. And we're only taking your word that your stat is correct. So, before I continue accepting your word as fact, please kindly post your evidence to back up your stat. Thank you.

Secondly,  I already asked (which you never addressed, again proving you lied when you claimed you replied to all arguments) how many of those 3rd and 25+ pass attempts were legitimate attempts to pick up the first down. I would wager very little. I bet you most of those were thrown short of the 1st down in an attempt to have the receiver either pick up the first down using some moves (which you would still probably say he was lucky) or just get some positive yardage to help the kicker or punter. 

Lastly, again, rarity does not equal luck. Luck is literally defined as "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions". Again, a skillful QB throwing a pass he has completed many times to a receiver who has caught said completions many times is the exact OPPOSITE of luck. 

(08-29-2022, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No it is not.  That is a complete false equivalency.  There have been hundreds of game winning FGs and TDs over the last 4 years, but only ONE conversion of a 3rd-and-25+.

And how many prior to the last 4 years? The NFL has been around since 1920. So, I'd be very surprised if this was the ONLY time a 3rd and 25+ was converted.

But, again, the pass itself was not luck. It was a pass Burrow has made quite a few times last season. Saying it was lucky because it was on a 3rd and 27 is like saying that Chase's first TD reception was lucky because it occurred at 1:37 pm (I don't know when time it officially occurred, btw). It doesn't matter WHEN it happened. It matters WHY it happeend. It happened because a skillful QB threw a pass he had thrown many times beofre to a skillful WR who had caught many of those passes before.

(08-29-2022, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes, both of those records involved a lot of luck.  That is why the exact same player with the exact same skill level was never able to repeat them.

Yet, according to you, the same QB and the same WR that made the same play multiple times, but this 1 time, it was due to luck. You need to make up your mind.