08-30-2022, 02:08 PM
(08-30-2022, 01:33 PM)PhilHos Wrote: First off, you never posted a video.
More importantly, this is just another falsehood created by you. I am the one that has constantly been asking you to point out the luck in an actual video clip that I posted.
For someone so adamant that the 3rd-and-27 play was the result of luck, you sure go through an awful lot of effort to refuse to point out the luck in the video.
Okay Phil. Here is the discussion using the quote function. It still shows your completely circular argument.
1. You ask me to point out "luck" in a video"
2. I prove that you can't point to "luck" in a video of a kid making a full court basketball shot.
3. You say that does not matter because a kid making a full court basketball shot is rare.
4. I point out how rare it is to convert ANY 3rd-and-25.
5. You circle back and claim rarity does not prove luck.
(08-29-2022, 11:21 AM)PhilHos Wrote: I'm still waiting on you to point out where in the video I posted on the 3rd-and-27 play the fluke you claim was responsible for the conversion occurs.
(08-29-2022, 11:39 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I can show you a video of a guy making a basketball shot from the top of a thousand foot building. Just from the video you would not be able to point to one single thing that proves it is lucky, yet he had to try it hundreds of times before he did it once. Do you agree that what he did was "lucky" or will you claim it was all skill just because you can't point to anything "lucky" in the video?
(08-29-2022, 01:19 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I doubt there are any kids that can routinely make full court shots, so when one actually makes 1 full court shot, its lucky.
(08-29-2022, 02:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The numbers prove I am correct.
Over the last 4 years NFL QBs have completed 3841 passes for 25+ yards. Only one has been on 3rd-and-25+. 13 different QBs have 100 or more completions for 25+ yards. Not a single one of them has done it on 3rd-and 25+.
Actually the reason I can't point to luck is the exact same reason that you can't point to luck in a video of a ten year old making a full court shot. And that reason is that just showing a video of something happening doesn't prove ANYTHING about how lucky it was. That entire argument was a logical failure.
(08-29-2022, 03:52 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Rarity does not equal luck.
Except that everyone knows making a full court shot is a rarity
(08-29-2022, 06:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually "rarity" is the best way to identify luck when you have a large sample set of equal factors. I say that if the most skilled players in the world can accomplish a feat less than one in a hundred times then luck has more to do with it than just skill.
How do you define/identify "luck"? Say I show you a video of a 10 year old kid making a full court shot. What do you look for in that video to detrmin if it was based on luck or skill?
(08-30-2022, 11:18 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Except I posted the video and asked for you to show where the luck was. You refuse to do so and instead rely solely on the 3rd-and-27 fact. The only one ignoring reality is you.
The reason you are stuck in this circular argument is that you refuse to acknowledge what every NFL fan knows and what the numbers I posted prove. It is EXTREMELY rare to convert ANY 3rd-and-25.
All you do is keep ignoring the numbers I post. Apparently, you are trying to claim that some 3rd-and-25 conversions are not rare, but you never explain which ones these are.
But to shut you up about this vide I will REPEAT my original answer (which you claimed I never made). You can't point out "luck" on a video of a kid making a full court basketball shot. Therefore you can't base your argument on my inability to point out "luck" in the video of the play in question. And i have posted PROOF of how rare it is to convert a 3rd-and-25. Less than one out of a hundred. So if you are goig to claim that some third-and-25 conversions are NOT rare then please tell me which ones.
