09-22-2022, 08:57 PM
(09-22-2022, 08:27 PM)J24 Wrote: The defense played well last season outside of 4(Browns, Chargers, Jets, chiefs games) , played well in the playoffs, and they're playing well now. What evidence is there to suggest that they're not a good defense?
Well, to begin, I never said they weren't a good defense. I said we don't have enough data to really judge them yet, but saying that they are good because they played well against Mitch and Cooper Rush isn't a convincing argument.
The defense was a mediocre defense last season, and you don't get to throw ~25% of the season away because it doesn't fit the point your trying to make. Here is where the Bengals defense ranked in several key metrics...
16th in PPG
15th in passer rating
13th in yards per carry
13th in yards per play
11th in sacks
18th in turnovers.
At this point, the conversation usually turns to "Yeah, but they had a TOP FIVE RUSH DEFENSE". No, they didn't. They gave up the fifth least yards because.....they faced the fifth least carries. Teams generally ran fine against Cincinnati, but they didn't stick with it because they had to either keep up with the offense or they had to play catch up. When it came to the playoffs, the defense was the exact same defense, as in, mediocre in most categories except for turnovers. Cincinnati's turnover ratio exploded, and that is what catapulted them to the Super Bowl. I want to be clear - that defense was the reason they made the Super Bowl, but aside from those turnovers, they were still mediocre on a play-by-play basis. The reason I point this out is because turnovers tend to be volatile and inconsistent. Since 1999, that defense had the third most turnovers generated in a playoff run, behind the 2000 Ravens and 2002 Bucs. They were phenomenal, but also, turnovers are inconsistent.
Final point - the defense isn't bad. They also aren't great. They were mediocre/okay/fine. Whatever you want to call what I just described. Phenomenal in the playoffs, yes, but not in a way that is typically repeatable. I think we are seeing a little bit of that now.
