09-23-2022, 12:18 PM
(09-22-2022, 06:16 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Cincinnati definitely still has hope, but it is faint and they need a turnaround quick. This is how quickly it escalates. These percentages provided are historical numbers, but these are the percentage chance of a playoff berth based on starting record...
0-2: 11.3%. Since 1990, when the NFL expanded to a 12 team format, 265 teams have started 0-2. Only 30 of those teams have made the playoffs.
0-3: 3.4%. The timeline I am finding is a little different here, but this is since 1980. I know, I know, but I am not aggregating this data myself and am relying on other peoples work. Since 1980, 176 teams have started 0-3 and only six have made the playoffs.
0-4: <1%. I don't need to know how many teams have started 0-4 to calculate this. Only one 0-4 team has ever made the NFL playoffs - the 1992 Chargers.
Cincinnati has slightly better odds given there are 17 games and the AFC North is still within reach so early, but a loss to the Jets would be absolutely brutal. Personally, I would call this a must-win game.
I heard ESPN say in the last 20 years only 1 team has made the playoffs after a 0-2 start...
