09-27-2022, 12:45 PM
(09-26-2022, 11:09 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: The average points scored per drive(on offense) across the NFL during the 2021 regular season was 2.04
The team with the highest points per drive during the 2021 regular season was the Chiefs with 2.7 points scored per drive.
So how is attempting a FG bad in that scenario? Wouldn't 3 points have afforded a nice cushion against a series of flukes or catastrophes?
Going up by 3 scores is the only reasonable call in that situation.
The argument would be that being more aggressive on 4th down affords you more opportunities to score TDs, which would then raise the ceiling of that points per drive. If you're going for smart 4th downs, you will typically win more than you lose. A 4th-and-1 is usually a smart bet to go for it, even in FG range. I personally would have kicked the FG, and I am heavily into analytics. However, I understand the logic behind it and more NFL teams are trending this way. You're seeing franchises become more and more aggressive as time goes on, which is following what analytical models suggest.
Most fans are very, very conservative in situations like this, so it isn't surprising to see people up in arms about it. I wasn't upset with it, but I would have just kicked the FG. I like seeing the aggressiveness. People typically only focus on the negatives I.E. when they fail rather than when they actually work, and I find that interesting. For instance, Cincinnati was faced with similar scenario in the playoff game vs. the Raiders.
4th and 1 at the LV 31, well within FG range. Up 13-6, can just kick the FG to go ahead by 3 more and make it a two score game.
Cincinnati runs the EXACT SAME play, a toss wide to Chase. He picks up the first down, and Cincinnati goes down to score a touchdown. Game is 20-6 instead of 16-6. Pretty huge play, that 4th-and-1, and they did it in a higher stakes game with much less of a margin for error.
