09-28-2022, 08:42 PM
(09-27-2022, 12:45 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: 4th and 1 at the LV 31, well within FG range. Up 13-6, can just kick the FG to go ahead by 3 more and make it a two score game.
Cincinnati runs the EXACT SAME play, a toss wide to Chase. He picks up the first down, and Cincinnati goes down to score a touchdown. Game is 20-6 instead of 16-6. Pretty huge play, that 4th-and-1, and they did it in a higher stakes game with much less of a margin for error.
Thanks for reminding me of that Raiders call - it was indeed gutsy and worked out well. I wonder if factors like time on the clock and opponent's efficiency vs. outside runs were taken into consideration. If my memory serves me, Prince was doing pretty well on outside run plays that game. It was obvious that they were going to try to punish Crosby for selling out against the pass. The clock story is interesting too, because now you're weighing potentialities like an ideal +14 points in two drives vs. how much your opponent can realistically score with the time left. Granted that one worked so of course we're going to look at it differently. It just felt different vs. the Jets. They had been playing the outside run very well all day, the Bengals offense had stalled, Hendrickson/the D looked like they were taking over, the run game was not doing well up to that point. With these qualitative factors it made it feel as though the 3 points were extremely valuable at the time.
You make some good/interesting points. Discussions like these show why football is such a fun game to watch/analyze. It's a very deep game with many qualitative and quantitative factors that can affect the outcome.
