Week 4 Checkpoint - Analytics

[KillerGoose]

After San Francisco downed Los Angeles last night, we have officially closed the doors on week four and have completed roughly 25% of the season. The season is still fresh and early with plenty of football left to play, but what have we learned through the first four weeks? We're going to have a brief overview of that below, along with a final record prediction.

QB Efficiency




Following the first two weeks, there was not only genuine concern about the Bengals season, but concern about Burrow's play. Of course, there were explanations such as a new offensive line and his appendectomy. What if none of those were the answer, though? What if it was just a regression? 

Well, it still could be but Burrow has played fantastic since, alleviating much of the fanbases concern about his abilities. Joe has the league's second highest EPA per play in weeks three and four, behind only Geno Smith. It's not a coincidence that these weeks have also seen the Bengals' first two victories of the season - this team goes where Burrow takes them. Overall, the top-of-the-league passers have some familiar faces with Mahomes and Allen near the top, joined by Tua, Geno and Lamar. 

RB Efficiency 






The other half of the offense doesn't have as much good news. Joe Mixon currently ranks dead last in EPA per play and yards per carry among qualified running backs (min. 40 carries). There is a small silver lining, though. This isn't Joe's worst start in his career, as he struggled mightily in 2017 as he averaged only 2.61 yards per carry through week four. The counterpoint to that silver lining is that Joe didn't really recover very well that season, finishing with 3.52 yards per carry and 626 yards. While Mixon's production will always play second fiddle to Burrow's, having a respectable rush threat will help the offense move along as the season progresses. If Mixon can't get it going, someone else needs to and that could mean a reduction in carries for the Bengal fan favorite.  

Offensive Line Grades


 



These grades are my own, not PFF or any others. I calculated them using pressure percentage as aggregated by PFF, yards before contact and I use penalty percentage as a small modifier. The grades are weighted towards pass blocking and are normalized to fit a scale of 0-100. One note is that I am only using pressures that are attributed to the offensive line here, not Burrow inflicted. Cincinnati has had a very poor start to the season after spending over $70m on the offensive line this offseason. Last year, they ranked 32nd in this same ranking, only improving by four spots through the first four weeks. 

Team Efficiency





Buoyed by fantastic defensive performances, Cincinnati is sitting comfortably at 2-2 as they head for a showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. The defense has proven to be one of the leagues strongest units, though there are detractors who will point out that the unit has faced a backup QB in every game so far (Mitch who has now been demoted, Cooper, Flacco, Bridgewater). The offense, on the other hand, is lagging a bit behind league average but most importantly is trending upward. The lack of a running game is hamstringing them but Burrow & Co. have been carrying the offense to productive days. With Baltimore's defensive struggles, look for Cincinnati's pass game to hit home again. 


Final Record Prediction


No graph for this one. I am using the same method I did last year, which is a Pythagorean projection. Cincinnati is currently on pace for an 11-6 record. At this point last year, I had Cincinnati on pace for an 11-6 record as well. You can see that thread here.