10-24-2022, 10:07 AM
According to Next Gen Stats, his throw to Chase against the Falcons was statistically his most improbable completion of the season at just 19.9% completion probability.
Notably, they said it's the most improbable reception of Chase's career but not Burrow's career, so I looked up Burrow's most improbable throws in 2021 and he actually had 3 completions less probable than this one last year. Here's the video:
https://www.nfl.com/videos/next-gen-stats-joe-burrow-s-5-most-improbable-completions-2021-regular-season
The first of the three more improbable completions was the 29 yard completion to Tyler Boyd against the Niners and, while it was an outstanding play, the reason it was improbable was not because of the placement of the ball or the tightness of the window, but rather the fact that the pass rusher really should have knocked the ball out of his hand as he was in his throwing motion, so we'll put that one aside.
The second of the three was Higgins Mossing those two Baltimore Ravens for a 52 yard reception. This was also an incredible throw but I think the improbability had more to do with Higgins beating a double team than it did with Joe's placement, so I'll put that one aside too.
The most improbable completion of 2021 (and likely of Burrow's career, unless he had a true banger in his rookie season EDIT: his most improbable completion in his rookie year was to AJ Green in the Washington game, but it was not as unlikely as this one, so this is his most improbably completion in his career. It was a nice pass, but an even better catch by Green. A real toe tapper.) was the 29 yard touchdown to Tee Higgins against the Chargers. Like the reception against Baltimore, it was an outstanding throw and catch but the improbability likely has more to do with Higgins, again, Mossing a double coverage and holding on as he falls to the ground, so I'll put that one aside as well.
The two passes that don't show up on this list but I think deserve credit are the tightrope act touchdown that Chase caught against the 49ers on 4th down and the hole shot touchdown against the 49ers to Chase 8 minutes later. However, the former was more Chase being an alien than Burrow throwing a dime (it was a great throw, just not on the same level as these other passes) and the hole shot that was remarkably similar to the one against the Falcons. The only difference is the one against the Falcons was significantly tighter of a window.
So I think this throw against the Falcons was the best throw of Burrow's NFL career. And Chase agrees, for what it's worth.
Joe Burrow & Ja'Marr Chase (32-yd TD)
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 23, 2022
The touchdown pass had a 19.9% completion probability, the most improbable reception of Chase's career, and Burrow's most improbable completion this season.
? Air Distance: 42.2 yds
? Target Separation: 0.7 yds@Bengals | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/yFSvkayKPa
Notably, they said it's the most improbable reception of Chase's career but not Burrow's career, so I looked up Burrow's most improbable throws in 2021 and he actually had 3 completions less probable than this one last year. Here's the video:
https://www.nfl.com/videos/next-gen-stats-joe-burrow-s-5-most-improbable-completions-2021-regular-season
The first of the three more improbable completions was the 29 yard completion to Tyler Boyd against the Niners and, while it was an outstanding play, the reason it was improbable was not because of the placement of the ball or the tightness of the window, but rather the fact that the pass rusher really should have knocked the ball out of his hand as he was in his throwing motion, so we'll put that one aside.
The second of the three was Higgins Mossing those two Baltimore Ravens for a 52 yard reception. This was also an incredible throw but I think the improbability had more to do with Higgins beating a double team than it did with Joe's placement, so I'll put that one aside too.
The most improbable completion of 2021 (and likely of Burrow's career, unless he had a true banger in his rookie season EDIT: his most improbable completion in his rookie year was to AJ Green in the Washington game, but it was not as unlikely as this one, so this is his most improbably completion in his career. It was a nice pass, but an even better catch by Green. A real toe tapper.) was the 29 yard touchdown to Tee Higgins against the Chargers. Like the reception against Baltimore, it was an outstanding throw and catch but the improbability likely has more to do with Higgins, again, Mossing a double coverage and holding on as he falls to the ground, so I'll put that one aside as well.
The two passes that don't show up on this list but I think deserve credit are the tightrope act touchdown that Chase caught against the 49ers on 4th down and the hole shot touchdown against the 49ers to Chase 8 minutes later. However, the former was more Chase being an alien than Burrow throwing a dime (it was a great throw, just not on the same level as these other passes) and the hole shot that was remarkably similar to the one against the Falcons. The only difference is the one against the Falcons was significantly tighter of a window.
So I think this throw against the Falcons was the best throw of Burrow's NFL career. And Chase agrees, for what it's worth.
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
