11-22-2022, 08:06 PM
(11-22-2022, 03:07 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I don't know what the formula for QBR is, but they seem to always underrate Joe Burrow. The numbers almost never line up. For example, Joe Burrow threw for 287 yards, 20 for 31, 64.5% Completion Pct., 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 115.9 QB rating against Miami...but ESPN's confidential rating system gave him a 44.0 for that game.
Comparatively, Ryan Tannehill went 19 for 36, 52.8% completion percentage, 255 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 94.1 QB rating against Denver...and ESPN's confidential rating system handed him an 82.0.
Maybe they do some real time judgments like PFF where they say "well, Tannehill only completed half his passes, but the passes he did complete were in tight windows and were perfectly placed whereas Joe Burrow's targets were more wide open" or something like that but even then almost twice the score? Seems pretty hard to believe.
Last year, Joe Burrow was the highest rated QB in PFF (I think. Tom Brady may have jumped him in the final game cuz Joe didn't play in week 18, I don't recall). He had a QB rating of 108.3, which was 2nd in the league behind MVP Aaron Rodgers. Led the league in completion percentage and yards per attempt but, somehow, he only had a 60.2 QBR.
Notably worse QBs that had a higher QBR than Burrow last year:
Kyler Murray
Ryan Tannehill
Carson Wentz
Notably worse QBs that have a higher QBR than Burrow right now:
Jacoby Brissett
Lamar Jackson
Derek Carr
Daniel Jones
Marcus Mariota
With Jared Goff and Justin Fields just below Burrow.
At this point, I just completely disregard that stat. They won't tell us how it is created, what factors it takes into account and how players could raise or lower them for things not related to passing the ball.
It's not a good metric to judge anything by, as far as I can tell.
As for Burrow's interceptions, it's notable that 4 of his 8 interceptions (at least, off the top of my head. I don't recall the other 4 at the moment) have come off batted passes, 2 of which were just TJ Watt making absurd plays at the line of scrimmage. And 4 of the 8 total were in week 1 when he had not thrown a pass in a game since the Super Bowl and was coming off an emergency appendectomy that knocked him out of the entire Training Camp and had him lose over 20 pounds in a month. He obviously wasn't right for those first 2 games, but he slowly regained his health and is playing at what would be an MVP level right now if Patrick Mahomes wasn't just...a football God, essentially.
I don't say any of this to demean the Titans or Ryan Tannehill. You're a Titans fan so you have probably only seen the Bengals play once or twice this year. Trust me when I tell you, Burrow is way better than Tannehill. They aren't on the same level. Not now, and not in the future either.
And that's okay. Tannehill is filling his role in Tennessee very well. But you're going to lose a lot of credibility on a Bengals forum and, honestly, on any non-Titans forum if you continue to claim they are playing comparably right now.
QBR (invented by ESPN in 2011) is a harder metric to grasp, especially since there are 6 major metrics that it is following and the first one has a number of moving parts. Contrast that to passer rating (which is a real NFL stat) which is only about passing yards/completion percentage/TDs/sacks and nothing more. Some of the metrics are subjective at best. For example, there is a "discount" for garbage time stats, that is a QB that gets a whole bunch of yards when the game is out of reach. I'd love to see how that's calculated and if someone has to manually determine that.
As for the names on this list, I think Lamar Jackson would like to have a word with you on whether Joe Burrow is a better QB. But let's discuss Marcus Mariota since we Titans fans are very familiar with him and his game play since he started for us for years. No one is saying that Mariota is better than Burrow...heck, he'd probably agree. (And Mariota was loved in Nashville as a great human being, but he was a middling, inconsistent QB). But QBR helps Mariota in that running the football is considered to be something that gooses the metric. And Mariota has always done well there (as has Lamar Jackson).
And then there's the "degree of difficulty" metric for a play. So I expect that a QB isn't rewarded much if he checks down a lot, but gets points for harder, down the field passes. Then you get freaks like Mahomes who can pocket pass in tight windows down the field, run the ball AND do freaky off-schedule stuff that kills defenses (like what happened to us twice now).
So a passer rating is certainly easier to wrap your brain around. But QBR was supposed to rate the entire package of the athlete, so to speak.
