Can The Bengals Keep This Team Together?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-02-2022, 11:26 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: This is a very common sentiment, and makes a lot of sense.  However, we don't really know just how high the salary cap will grow with all the gambling revenue.  Some think the salary cap could be as much as $300 million in 2026.  Now, will it be challenging to make a contract next year for Burrow and Higgins work (a year ahead of Chase) with only, say $230 million cap in 2023?  I would say yes.  Here is why:

The cap this year is $208 million, so it increases in one year roughly $22 million.  Holding every other contract as constants (I know they won't be, but hear me out...don't want to dive too deep into the weeds), the Bengals will save roughly $13 million when Bates is not re-signed.  They could also release Joe Mixon (as I believe there is an out after this season).  That saves roughly $23 million between the two. The cap increases $22 million in 2023 (projected).  So that is an increase in your salary cap dollars of $45 million.  Joe's salary cap hit next year would be roughly $10 million if left alone.  That is roughly $5 million salary, and $5 million of prorated signing bonus.  So, his cap hit as of today for next year would be $10 million.  If Joe signs a 10 year, $450 million dollar contract, His cap hit could be as little as $20 million by prorating the bonus across the 10 years and having the base salary grow each year as the cap will grow.  If Joe has a cap hit next year with his new contract of roughly $20 million, that would represent an increase of just $10 million over the current projected cap hit if he wasn't given a new contract.  You have already freed more than that up with the savings from Bates and Mixon.  

I hope that makes sense.  Yes, there will be Wilson to extend and possibly Pratt, maybe Jonah, but I think they can make it work.  My biggest question would be if the Bengals have the CASH to pay Joe the bonus all upfront (which gets prorated for cap purposes).  That could be a huge chunk of change.  Might have to sell the Lumina.  

He isn't going to take the Mahomes deal. That deal will be 3 years old next offseason and he has already slipped to the 5th highest paid QB. If you know that the cap is going to rise a ton over the next few years, be sure that the players and agents know that too.

Not to mention that would mean Burrow taking less per year than Watson in his own division, as well as less than Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. (And Herbert when he gets paid next off-season too.)

Nobody is taking a 10 year deal right now because they want to be able to renegotiate an extension in a few years when there is more cap space pumping up contract numbers further. A lot of 4-5 year deals for highly paid QBs.

You ninja'd but it might be true that the Browns/Blackburns could have trouble throwing all the guaranteed money from a Burrow, Higgins, AND Chase deal into escrow. That has to be actual cash, not just worth-backed.

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There isn't really any savings from Bates walking. That money is already gone. Guys already under contract are getting larger cap hits. Hendrickson next year is $2m more, BJ Hill is $2.5m more, Hubbard is $3m more, Chase is $1.5m more, Cappa is $2m more, Jonah is $7m more, Collins is $3m more. Plus you need to re-sign Bell (he will likely be more expensive) and find a TE. Plus other guys with smaller increases in cap hits.