12-13-2022, 11:15 PM
OK, here is my best shot on the lay of the land.
My best guess is we'll have around $29 mil in cap space to sign our 6 FA's who are likely to command salaries significantly above a vet min salary (Bates, Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, and Perine). That is assuming a cap of $220.5 mil. Which is what Spotrac has currently for 2023.
Now, we do not have a hard number on the cap yet. I think therexare some TV/Sponsorship/gambling details that are not final yet on the revenue side, and the Union has some decisions to make about payments that were defered during COVID that need to be paid out. If they do it all at once, the cap will be less. If they spread it out, it will be higher.
That $29 mil number has some assumptions baked in. Which we can adjust. But I will show my work.
I. We won't spend the full $29 mil.
Guys will get hurt. Their salaries will still count vs the cap. New players will have to be signed to replace them. Guys will get hurt requiring others to get waived to rebalance the roster. We will incur dead money for some guys. Other teams may release players that we want at the end, resulting in a waiver before a claim. More dead money. Usually you want $8-10 mil of wiggle room for the season. Though some teams do operate with less.
II. We don't cut anyone with a big salary.
For this team, that means starters. Only 3 Bengal reserves make more than $2 million this year. #3 OG Max Scharping makes $2.5 mil. As does injured KR/S Brandon Wilson. This year's #1 pick Dax Hill makes $2.1. Some guys are close. Perine & Flowers are at $1.8 mil. Injured TE Drew Sample $1.75 mil. DT Josh Tupou $1.4 mil. Scharping, B. Wilson, D. Sample, Flowers, & Perine are all FAs after this season. The only guys over $2 mil next year who are not currently starters are the aforementioned Hill and Carman. And with their dead cap numbers, we'd lose money by cutting either once we pay a replacement.
Also, if Perine & Apple are not considered starters, the chances we pay them significant salary is pretty low. Though Chido is coming off an injury and we have to be planning for the possibility of moving on from Mixon soon.
III. That means we have $150 mil in salary to starters baked in for next year.
Burrow, Mixon, Chase, Higgins, Boyd, Jonah, Volson, Karras, Cappa, Collins; Hendrickson, Reader, BJ Hill, Hubbard, L. Wilson, Awuzie, Hilton, and McPherson will make $150,284,623 next year. $150 mil wrapped up in 18 guys. 10 offensive starters, 7 on D, plus Mac.
IV. We won't cut any proven/talented young guys from a SB contender if we can help it, especially since their salaries are moderate & they are already signed. I have 8 players in this category, making a combined $11,473,463.
Now, everyone may fairly quibble with who is "proven" here, and maybe that is too strong a word. But I think my 8 guys in this bucket, while not having proven themselves worthy to start, have at least been competent in limited opportunities, are young guys we won't give up on yet, and/or have elevated themselves over other guys on the roster so that there are guys beneath them on the roster ladder at their positions. The 8: Adeniji (#3 OT), Ossai (#3 DE with flashes), C. Sample (#4 DE, ahead of Gunther), Tupou (#2 NT, ahead of Tufele), ADG (#3 LB), Bailey (#4 LB), CTB (#3 CB), and D. Hill (#3 safety).
Even if I'm wrong and one of these 8 get let go, it won't move the needle much/at all in terms of the cap. Other than Hill at $2.6 mil (who is going nowhere), Tupou at $1.6 mil is the high earner for 2023.
V. We bring back our other 10 players who are currently on the roster/IR who are signed for next year. These 10 make a combined $11,316,512.
Now, this won't happen. All 10 of these players (Evans, Morgan Jr , Asiasi, T. Hill, Smith, Carman, Gunter, Carter, Tufele, Anderson) will not be back. They are at the bottom of the pecking order at their positions (RB, WR, TE, C, OT, G, DE, DT, NT, S). If we upgrade, I could see any going. Though I am pretty certain Anderson stays as we traded up for him.
But the point is, aside from a round 1 pick, any replacement is likely to make about the same amount, or less, than these guys. So whether or not we keep these particular guys or not, that $11.3 mil is a solid estimate for these roster slots.
VI. That brings us to around $171 mil for 36 players. Save for Brown from the PS, who got hurt, that is all the signed players we have. So now we enter FA territory, almost.
VII. Practice squad allowance is $3.6 mil.
Acvording to Spotrac, PS players made $207k this year. I bumped it to $225k x 16 for next. There may be some dead money incurred when guys get released and new ones signed, and $225k may be too low, but it is ballpark.
VIII. Draft allowance of $1 mil.
Wait, 7 players for $1 mil? That makes no sense. Remember, it is what the draftees make compared to whom they are replacing. The #1 pick is the only guy who will likely make more than who he is replacing. CTB (Rd 2 pick) makes 17k more than Morgan Jr, for instance. Rd 3-7 almost certainly will be less. How many picks make the team and whom they bump will move the number some, but not much. As will where we pick. #27 makes just under $2.5 mil, minus whom he replaces ($1 mil) and we are starting out at +$1.5 mil. Rd 2 is a wash, Rd3 on and those guys make likely less than their replacements.
IX. We don't make a big external FA signing.
We could very well do this. But it adds another layer of complication. For now, work with me and assume we don't.
X. With 36 slots accounted for, and 6 FAs we are gonna debate, we need to allocate for 11 additional roster slots amongst our other FAs to get us to 47. I picked 11 and assumed they were all vet min types, and allocated the appropriate salary for their years of service. This added $13,220,000.
For the record, I re-signed Chrisman, Adomitis, Allen, T. Williams, Irwin, Taylor, Wilcox, Scharping, Johnston, Flowers, and Davis. If you pick diffetent guys, you could save a bit more. Of course, a couple guys on that list may be worth a bit more than vet min. But not by much.
XI. Add it all up plus our dead money already sunk ($619,060) and you get $191,513,658. Which is $29,209,776 under a cap of $220,500,000.
Bates, Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, and Perine as the only significant FAs from this year. And your full compliment of draft picks. Who stays, who goes?
My best guess is we'll have around $29 mil in cap space to sign our 6 FA's who are likely to command salaries significantly above a vet min salary (Bates, Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, and Perine). That is assuming a cap of $220.5 mil. Which is what Spotrac has currently for 2023.
Now, we do not have a hard number on the cap yet. I think therexare some TV/Sponsorship/gambling details that are not final yet on the revenue side, and the Union has some decisions to make about payments that were defered during COVID that need to be paid out. If they do it all at once, the cap will be less. If they spread it out, it will be higher.
That $29 mil number has some assumptions baked in. Which we can adjust. But I will show my work.
I. We won't spend the full $29 mil.
Guys will get hurt. Their salaries will still count vs the cap. New players will have to be signed to replace them. Guys will get hurt requiring others to get waived to rebalance the roster. We will incur dead money for some guys. Other teams may release players that we want at the end, resulting in a waiver before a claim. More dead money. Usually you want $8-10 mil of wiggle room for the season. Though some teams do operate with less.
II. We don't cut anyone with a big salary.
For this team, that means starters. Only 3 Bengal reserves make more than $2 million this year. #3 OG Max Scharping makes $2.5 mil. As does injured KR/S Brandon Wilson. This year's #1 pick Dax Hill makes $2.1. Some guys are close. Perine & Flowers are at $1.8 mil. Injured TE Drew Sample $1.75 mil. DT Josh Tupou $1.4 mil. Scharping, B. Wilson, D. Sample, Flowers, & Perine are all FAs after this season. The only guys over $2 mil next year who are not currently starters are the aforementioned Hill and Carman. And with their dead cap numbers, we'd lose money by cutting either once we pay a replacement.
Also, if Perine & Apple are not considered starters, the chances we pay them significant salary is pretty low. Though Chido is coming off an injury and we have to be planning for the possibility of moving on from Mixon soon.
III. That means we have $150 mil in salary to starters baked in for next year.
Burrow, Mixon, Chase, Higgins, Boyd, Jonah, Volson, Karras, Cappa, Collins; Hendrickson, Reader, BJ Hill, Hubbard, L. Wilson, Awuzie, Hilton, and McPherson will make $150,284,623 next year. $150 mil wrapped up in 18 guys. 10 offensive starters, 7 on D, plus Mac.
IV. We won't cut any proven/talented young guys from a SB contender if we can help it, especially since their salaries are moderate & they are already signed. I have 8 players in this category, making a combined $11,473,463.
Now, everyone may fairly quibble with who is "proven" here, and maybe that is too strong a word. But I think my 8 guys in this bucket, while not having proven themselves worthy to start, have at least been competent in limited opportunities, are young guys we won't give up on yet, and/or have elevated themselves over other guys on the roster so that there are guys beneath them on the roster ladder at their positions. The 8: Adeniji (#3 OT), Ossai (#3 DE with flashes), C. Sample (#4 DE, ahead of Gunther), Tupou (#2 NT, ahead of Tufele), ADG (#3 LB), Bailey (#4 LB), CTB (#3 CB), and D. Hill (#3 safety).
Even if I'm wrong and one of these 8 get let go, it won't move the needle much/at all in terms of the cap. Other than Hill at $2.6 mil (who is going nowhere), Tupou at $1.6 mil is the high earner for 2023.
V. We bring back our other 10 players who are currently on the roster/IR who are signed for next year. These 10 make a combined $11,316,512.
Now, this won't happen. All 10 of these players (Evans, Morgan Jr , Asiasi, T. Hill, Smith, Carman, Gunter, Carter, Tufele, Anderson) will not be back. They are at the bottom of the pecking order at their positions (RB, WR, TE, C, OT, G, DE, DT, NT, S). If we upgrade, I could see any going. Though I am pretty certain Anderson stays as we traded up for him.
But the point is, aside from a round 1 pick, any replacement is likely to make about the same amount, or less, than these guys. So whether or not we keep these particular guys or not, that $11.3 mil is a solid estimate for these roster slots.
VI. That brings us to around $171 mil for 36 players. Save for Brown from the PS, who got hurt, that is all the signed players we have. So now we enter FA territory, almost.
VII. Practice squad allowance is $3.6 mil.
Acvording to Spotrac, PS players made $207k this year. I bumped it to $225k x 16 for next. There may be some dead money incurred when guys get released and new ones signed, and $225k may be too low, but it is ballpark.
VIII. Draft allowance of $1 mil.
Wait, 7 players for $1 mil? That makes no sense. Remember, it is what the draftees make compared to whom they are replacing. The #1 pick is the only guy who will likely make more than who he is replacing. CTB (Rd 2 pick) makes 17k more than Morgan Jr, for instance. Rd 3-7 almost certainly will be less. How many picks make the team and whom they bump will move the number some, but not much. As will where we pick. #27 makes just under $2.5 mil, minus whom he replaces ($1 mil) and we are starting out at +$1.5 mil. Rd 2 is a wash, Rd3 on and those guys make likely less than their replacements.
IX. We don't make a big external FA signing.
We could very well do this. But it adds another layer of complication. For now, work with me and assume we don't.
X. With 36 slots accounted for, and 6 FAs we are gonna debate, we need to allocate for 11 additional roster slots amongst our other FAs to get us to 47. I picked 11 and assumed they were all vet min types, and allocated the appropriate salary for their years of service. This added $13,220,000.
For the record, I re-signed Chrisman, Adomitis, Allen, T. Williams, Irwin, Taylor, Wilcox, Scharping, Johnston, Flowers, and Davis. If you pick diffetent guys, you could save a bit more. Of course, a couple guys on that list may be worth a bit more than vet min. But not by much.
XI. Add it all up plus our dead money already sunk ($619,060) and you get $191,513,658. Which is $29,209,776 under a cap of $220,500,000.
Bates, Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, and Perine as the only significant FAs from this year. And your full compliment of draft picks. Who stays, who goes?
