12-14-2022, 02:36 PM
(12-14-2022, 12:46 PM)wcu Wrote: This article says we need to win 2 of the remaining 4 to guarantee a playoff spot, but there are also scenarios where we could lose out and still get the 6 or 7 seed. We hold tie breakers over the Jets, Dolphins, and Titans and hopefully soon the Patriots and Bills.
https://www.cleveland.com/bengals/2022/12/how-did-sundays-win-over-the-browns-affect-the-bengals-playoff-chances.html
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/bengalswhatif.html
This site is pretty cool. It lays out a bunch of scenarios with associated statistics. It says if we win out, we have a 53% chance of being the 2 seed and 47% chance of being the 1. If we lose out, it gives us a 62% chance of making the playoffs.
This is a very cool tool from the NY Times that lets you see how our playoff chances and seeding changes depending on the individual games we win/lose: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/upshot/cincinnati-bengals-nfl-playoff-picture.html#tb-cin-15=loss&ne-cin-16=loss&cin-buf-17=win&cin-bal-18=win
Doing a very cursory simulation, it looks like:
1. We win out and the Chiefs win out, we're the 2 seed.
2. We win out and the Chiefs lose one, we're the 1 seed.
3. We lose to the Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 3 seed.
4. We lose to the Ravens, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
5. We lose to the Ravens and Bills, but win the rest of our games, we're the 5 seed.
6. We lose to the Ravens, Bills, and one other, we're the 7 seed.
7. We lose out and miss the playoffs.
Not all of those scenarios are true and largely are dependent on what other teams do. If we only lose against the Ravens but they drop 2 of their last 4, which is certainly possible, we would still win the division.
I'm sure you probably realize that but wanted to point it out for others who may quickly glance through.
