12-17-2015, 02:44 PM
Here's an interesting comment this week from fantasyfootballmetrics.com (pretty cool site by the way if you like really deep statistical analysis of stuff):
"Through 12 games (ignore this game), Andy Dalton averaged 1.4 completions per game of his passes that traveled 20+ yards downfield this season. He has completed 38.0% of his 20+ yard throws (50 attempts) with 0.5 TD/0.3 INT per game on those throws.
For context, Aaron Rodgers (who I picked randomly) has completed only 1.0 passes per game in 2015 on his throws of 20+ yards downfield. He’s completing only 29.5% of his 44 throws traveling 20+ yards with 0.3 TD/0.0 INT per game.
It’s not easy for QBs to complete passes traveling 20+ yards downfield.
Nick Foles: 1.1 completions and 0.3 TD/0.3 INT per game with a 31.7% completion percentage.
Jameis Winston: 0.8 completions and 0.2 TD/0.1 INT per games with a 24.3% completion percentage.
Brock Osweiler, sudden starter: 0.8 completions and 0.0 TD/0.0 INT per game with a 25.0% completion percentage.
Are you comfortable with these deep throw numbers? Make sure you browse back through them before proceeding. Seriously.
Most NFL quarterbacks fall in the range of random QB samples I provided above. It’s not easy to complete these deeper passes. Between play calling, O-Line issues, QB talents and/or fears, WR talent, etc.—you don’t see a ton of passes traveling 20+ yards landing successfully to intended receivers. The BEST QBs in the NFL hit about an average of two of them per game with 30–40% completion percentage.
In this game, coming off the bench cold, playing only about 80% of the game, with most all of his deep throws coming with the game in reach (down by two scores or less with plenty of time) A.J. McCarron completed an astonishing four passes of 20+ yards with a 57.1% completion percentage along with 1 TD/1 INT. McCarron completed more 20+ yards downfield passes in three quarters than Brock Osweiler has in all of 2015."
"Through 12 games (ignore this game), Andy Dalton averaged 1.4 completions per game of his passes that traveled 20+ yards downfield this season. He has completed 38.0% of his 20+ yard throws (50 attempts) with 0.5 TD/0.3 INT per game on those throws.
For context, Aaron Rodgers (who I picked randomly) has completed only 1.0 passes per game in 2015 on his throws of 20+ yards downfield. He’s completing only 29.5% of his 44 throws traveling 20+ yards with 0.3 TD/0.0 INT per game.
It’s not easy for QBs to complete passes traveling 20+ yards downfield.
Nick Foles: 1.1 completions and 0.3 TD/0.3 INT per game with a 31.7% completion percentage.
Jameis Winston: 0.8 completions and 0.2 TD/0.1 INT per games with a 24.3% completion percentage.
Brock Osweiler, sudden starter: 0.8 completions and 0.0 TD/0.0 INT per game with a 25.0% completion percentage.
Are you comfortable with these deep throw numbers? Make sure you browse back through them before proceeding. Seriously.
Most NFL quarterbacks fall in the range of random QB samples I provided above. It’s not easy to complete these deeper passes. Between play calling, O-Line issues, QB talents and/or fears, WR talent, etc.—you don’t see a ton of passes traveling 20+ yards landing successfully to intended receivers. The BEST QBs in the NFL hit about an average of two of them per game with 30–40% completion percentage.
In this game, coming off the bench cold, playing only about 80% of the game, with most all of his deep throws coming with the game in reach (down by two scores or less with plenty of time) A.J. McCarron completed an astonishing four passes of 20+ yards with a 57.1% completion percentage along with 1 TD/1 INT. McCarron completed more 20+ yards downfield passes in three quarters than Brock Osweiler has in all of 2015."
