2023 OL Draft Prospects Group Assessments

[WVUHomer]

(01-25-2023, 07:09 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: And, here is some quickie/ham-fisted analysis.

III. Off- Season Outlook: Offensive Line.

With 9 of 10 rostered OL from 2022 under contract for 2024, including all 5 starters, OL does not appear to be a glaring need this off-season. Furthermore, 7 players, including 4 starters (all save Jonah Williams & Adeniji) are signed through at least 2025.

The only immediate hole to fill is finding a serviceable reserve guard. Scharping is a FA and was the highest paid reserve on the team this year at $2,540,000. However, there are several issues looming.

The first just the overall quality of the line. While an improved group from 2021, they are merely adequate. The only plus starter this year was Cappa. Maybe Karras? There isn't a Pro Bowler in the bunch, and certainly not an all-Pro. If there is a guy who can upgrade the starting unit, he'd have to be STRONGLY considered in the draft. FA is doubtful, as a upgrade to our current starters will be pricey. Which brings us to issue #2.

Impending cap crunch. Burrow and Chase are currently on rookie deals. Joe can sign an extension that could change his cap hit from $11.5 mil in 2023 to over $50 mil in 2025, when the extension will kick in. Chase is also gonna get paid, and his salary will likely balloon from $8.5 mil in 2023 to over $25 mil in 2026 when his extension kicks in. And while those extensions are 3-4 years down the road, and the cap will rise some, new deals for players this off-season (Bates, Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, Perine, Sharping, Flowers) or next (Higgins, Reader, J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie, L. Wilson, Mixon - team option) will eat all of cap space & overlap with those huge extensions.

Hard decisions will have to be made at every position group. Keeping guys who are performing well may be problematic (Bates, Pratt, Higgins, etc). Overpaying for mediocre performers will compound our looming cap crisis and likely impede our ability to sign guys we WANT to keep. Which brings us to OT specifically. And a more precise analysis of each position group (OT, G, C) and player.

IV. Offensive Tackle (5).

Williams makes $12.6 million next year and a new deal will likely be expensive. He just had the worst season of his career. And suffered significant injuries to BOTH legs (dislocated kneecap). And missed all of 2019 with a torn labrum. To be fair, valiantly playing through the dislocated kneecap may have played a part in his poor play this year. PFF (FWIW) had him at 70.1 in 2020, 77.1 last year, and 61.2 this while allowing the most sacks in the league.

Collins also had an off year. Particularly vs speed, though he did perform well as a run blocker. His 57.9 grade was his lowest since a 51.5 grade in 2016, the season he switched from G to OT and played less than 200 snaps. And a far cry from the iver 80 grade he got in his last two years in Dallas (2021 & 2019). Perhaps the back issues held him back, but that isn't necessarily a good thing either.

Given their high Dead Cap numbers: $12.6 mil for Jonah and $3.33 mil for Collins, both guys will be here next year with an opportunity to bounce back with better health next year. We have to decide on Jonah next year, Collins after 2024. Better, healthier, and/or cheaper options at OT would be welcome, but may be hard to come by. FA too pricey. We are unlikely to land a plug & play OT at 29th or later. We are likely looking at a bit of a project or a RT only prospect. But we do have a year to get someone ready. A replacement for either would not have to start from jump.

However, a replacement COULD already be here. I am mot gonna annoint Carman nor Adeniji as starter worthy after one good game, but wow! If both guys continue to perform well, we at least have to feel good about our 2nd string tackles. Barring a total meltdown in KC, I think both guys are safely on the roster next year. Waiving either won't save any money, and both can play some. Both look WAY better at OT than G.

Smith is another matter. He was a project when drafted. When we lost both tackles his name never came up as a possible replacement. Adeniji first. Carman (listed as a G) was preferred to replace Jonah. And Prince from the PS also was mentioned and got reps in practice. If we bring in another OT in the draft, I think Smith will likely be the one to go. Though we could bite hard & release Collins, or carry 11 OL. Either is doubtful in my view.


V. Guard (4).

Guard seems to be the inverse of tackle. The starters look fine, particularly Cappa. Who is signed thru 2025 and graded out as our best lineman this year. Volson overperformed my expectations and was acceptable. Hopefully, he levels up again next year. He is also very cheap and signed through 2025.

Scharping was our Guard #3 and is a FA. Carman was G4 and he is obviously better at OT. As is Adeniji. Karras has played G as a pro, as has Collins, but both are starters elsewhere. Even if Scharping is back, I'd expect a Guard in the draft. If not, maybe 2.

VI. Center (3).

Karras is not a world-beater but is slightly above average, a great locker room guy, and on a reasonable contract.

T. Hill has not got to play much, but has looked decent during play, but did have some penalty yips early on. Ben Brown was an undrafted FA,we picked up and had some camp buzz but tore his bicep & spent the year on IR. Neither guy is over $100k in dead cap.

VII. Draft.

Not a great draft class for OL by most estimations. Though I will leave that to those with more draft chops than me. My $0.02 is that finding someone who will be an immediate upgrade to our starters in Rd1 will either be difficult (for OT) or not a wise use of the pick (G, C).

I think there are 3 consensus plug & play tackles who are round 1 worthy (Skoronski, Johnson, Jones). All of whom are likely gone by the time we pick. The best OG in the draft plays Cappa's spot (RG), limited uprade even if he hits. No other Rd1 guards ir centers likely.

Depending on how things shake out in FA & the top of the draft, using our 1st on a developmental tackle is possible. But I think Day 2 makes more sense. For guard & center, I think there is decent day 2 or early day 3 value. But I will leave that to those who watch more college ball.

Love the breakdown but disagree on two assessments. Wright has dominated (one of the few times I DO wish FT was here for his assessment as the community UT fan) both LT and RT. Most recently with RT. I'm not saying he'd outright play better than LC but with the injury issue, I'd actually feel confident in the play with Wright.

Harrison is a LT/RT versatile guy but I don't appreciate his lack of power (something even he knows is lacking). Especially since he would have to be a round 1 player.

D. Jones is a project for RT like you said but the size is tantalizing. 

Bergeron from Syracuse could be a LT project but you would have to take him in 2 now and I don't like that. I would be okay in 3 but at this point it might not be a pressing need with Carman.

Steen from Bama could be a late rounder you stash and develop potentially.