2023 RB Draft Prospects Group Assessment

[*Synric*]

(02-10-2023, 05:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think that's more of a general rule that applies to every position - the earlier the prospect, the more likely you are (or should be) to get a good player.
But when breaking down positions, I would probably put RB lower on the importance pole that you have to take early to get a good one.
QB, OL, DL, CB, WR are positions I have above RB when it comes to needing to get one early if you want a good one.

We see quite a good amount of the RBs who are in the Top 32 each year in rushing yards who were drafted 3rd round or below.
Going down the rushing leaders....
Jamaal Williams - 4th round
Alvin Kamara - 3rd round
Dameon Pierce - 4th round
Aaron Jones - 5th round
Tyler Allgeier - 5th round
Rhamondre Stevenson - 5th round
Brian Robinson - 3rd round
Austin Ekeler - UDFA
D'Onta Foreman - 3rd round
Tony Pollard - 4th round
Devin Singletary - 3rd round
Isaiah Pacheco - 7th round
Jeff Wilson - UDFA
Raheem Mostert - UDFA
James Conner - 3rd round
David Montgomery - 3rd round

That's half of the Top 32 RBs in terms of rushing yards.

I agree that the elite RBs are predominantly coming in the first two rounds of the draft, but there are still plenty of really good RBs who are getting drafted outside the top 2 rounds.

It's easy to point out the late success for running back but in reality the % of successful late running backs is less than 10%.

Dameon Pierce was drafted in the top of the 4th round of the 2022 NFL draft. Other 4th round RB's include Zamir White (Rams), Isaiah Spiller (Chargers), Pierre Strong (Patriots), and Hassan Haskins (Titans). They were 17/70 4.1, 18/41 2.3, 0/0 0.0, and 25/93 3.7 respectively.

Out of 15 or 16 running backs drafted 4th round or later only 3 did anything their rookie year. Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, and Isiah Pachecco. That is not a strong success rate. So people expecting a day 3 rookie to come in and start are probably going to be disappointed.

Day 2 and very early day 3 is the sweet spot for running backs because the top of the classes have been falling out of the 1st round... that's the reason we see successful "mid round picks" at RB because the top of the class is usually going off the board around 40.