02-21-2023, 08:10 PM
OK, injecting boilerplate analysis on cap/FA/team situation.
I. 2023 Bengals General FA/Cap Situation
# of Starters who are FA = 8.
Offense = 1. Hurst
Defense = 4. Bates, Bell, Pratt, Apple.
Special = 3. Adomitis (Restricted?), Taylor (PR), T. Williams (KR)
# of Key Reserves who are FAs = 4.
Offense = 3. Perine, Scharping, Wilcox (Restricted)
Defense = 1. Flowers.
With 41 guys signed, we have an estimated $182,145,784 in slaries and $619,060 in Dead Cap for 2023. For total commitments so far of $182,764,844. With a projected cap of $225 million and $2,497,443 in rollover cap from last year, we project to have $44,733,599 in cap space to fill out our roster. Re-sign our own guys. Sign new guys. Pay draft picks.
And that sounds like a lot of money, and it is. But remember, we always leave a cushion to sign other players to the 53 when guys get hurt during the season & go on IR. Usualy $6-$10 mil. Our FA's this year are either due significant raises (Pratt, Hurst), already making big money (Bates, Bell), or likely to be significantly above vet min level (Apple, Perine, Flowers, Scharping).
II. Looming Cap Issues
And of course the issue of the looming raises for Burrow & Chase. While they won't hit until 2025 for Burrow and 2026 for Chase, they are gonna represent a large increase over what they currently make & change our cap space going forward. Burrow could go from $11 mil to $50 mil, and Chase from $10 mil to $25-30 mil. Guys who sign deals this year (or next) will have their contracts overlap with these new deals. Yes, the cap will go up as well, it went up around $17 mil for 2023, but that still falls short of covering this. More so when other rookie scale guys are up. FWIW, here is the FA schedule for guys who could command significant salary.
2023: Pratt (rookie), Bates, Bell, Hurst, Apple.
2024: Higgins (rookie), L. Wilson (rookie), Reader, Mixon (Team Option), J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie.
2025: Burrow (rookie), Hendrickson, Mixon, BJ Hill, Collins, Hilton, Karras
2026: Chase (rookie); Hubbard, Cappa
Also remember that as the cap goes up, the number it takes to retain good players also increases. And I am mindful that creative contracts can reduce the cap hit for Burrow & Chase & others. And for some, we may part ways befire the FA year if the salary is high, but the oerfromance & Dead Cap number is low.
It certainly behooves us to line up possible replacements in rookie scale deals for some of our higher priced players who are not performing to contract, who we may not be able to pay again, or for rookie scale guys who may be too expensive to retain.
I. 2023 Bengals General FA/Cap Situation
# of Starters who are FA = 8.
Offense = 1. Hurst
Defense = 4. Bates, Bell, Pratt, Apple.
Special = 3. Adomitis (Restricted?), Taylor (PR), T. Williams (KR)
# of Key Reserves who are FAs = 4.
Offense = 3. Perine, Scharping, Wilcox (Restricted)
Defense = 1. Flowers.
With 41 guys signed, we have an estimated $182,145,784 in slaries and $619,060 in Dead Cap for 2023. For total commitments so far of $182,764,844. With a projected cap of $225 million and $2,497,443 in rollover cap from last year, we project to have $44,733,599 in cap space to fill out our roster. Re-sign our own guys. Sign new guys. Pay draft picks.
And that sounds like a lot of money, and it is. But remember, we always leave a cushion to sign other players to the 53 when guys get hurt during the season & go on IR. Usualy $6-$10 mil. Our FA's this year are either due significant raises (Pratt, Hurst), already making big money (Bates, Bell), or likely to be significantly above vet min level (Apple, Perine, Flowers, Scharping).
II. Looming Cap Issues
And of course the issue of the looming raises for Burrow & Chase. While they won't hit until 2025 for Burrow and 2026 for Chase, they are gonna represent a large increase over what they currently make & change our cap space going forward. Burrow could go from $11 mil to $50 mil, and Chase from $10 mil to $25-30 mil. Guys who sign deals this year (or next) will have their contracts overlap with these new deals. Yes, the cap will go up as well, it went up around $17 mil for 2023, but that still falls short of covering this. More so when other rookie scale guys are up. FWIW, here is the FA schedule for guys who could command significant salary.
2023: Pratt (rookie), Bates, Bell, Hurst, Apple.
2024: Higgins (rookie), L. Wilson (rookie), Reader, Mixon (Team Option), J. Williams, Boyd, Awuzie.
2025: Burrow (rookie), Hendrickson, Mixon, BJ Hill, Collins, Hilton, Karras
2026: Chase (rookie); Hubbard, Cappa
Also remember that as the cap goes up, the number it takes to retain good players also increases. And I am mindful that creative contracts can reduce the cap hit for Burrow & Chase & others. And for some, we may part ways befire the FA year if the salary is high, but the oerfromance & Dead Cap number is low.
It certainly behooves us to line up possible replacements in rookie scale deals for some of our higher priced players who are not performing to contract, who we may not be able to pay again, or for rookie scale guys who may be too expensive to retain.
