The 2023 off-season - what do you want to see?

[CJD]

(02-03-2023, 01:00 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: So.....

The guy that has given up the most sacks over the last 2 years is somehow ranked 14th-24th in terms of left tackles?  Explain that one to me.

I wouldn't call myself a Jonah Williams fan - in fact, I am pretty disappointed that we spent a near top 10 pick on a left tackle that was athletically and physically limited - but that's besides the point. The sack number is high, but he pressure rate is right around where it needs to be:

Here's why "sacks" are just not that useful anymore. Pressure rate allowed on True Pass Sets in '22 with sacks allowed:

T. Pipkins - 7.9% (3)
D. Dawkins - 8.0% (3)
C. Fleming - 8.1% (6)
Jonah Williams - 8.2% (10)
C. Okorafor - 8.3% (2)
T. Steele - 8.4% (1)
T. Howard - 8.6% (2)

— Andrew Russell (@Andrew_Russell7) February 23, 2023

 


You could attribute to sacks to a number of things: 
1. Bad luck. As in, the times that he is beat, the play that was called just happens to have been a longer running play whereas if Cleming or Steele gave up that same pressure, the play mau have happened to be a quick out.
2. Bad scheme. As in, he was left on an island too much compared to these other tackles which caused he pressures allowed to turn into sacks allowed more often.
3. Joe Burrow trying to make a play. We all know Burrow takes more sacks than he needs to because he's trying to make something happen. He's said so multiple times in the past that he doesn't really care about getting sacked on third down if they aren't in field goal range. So protecting Burrow compared to protecting Derek Carr may inflate your sacks allowed.
4. He has to play against Myles Garrett twice a year and the Steelers' defense twice a year, which will just naturally increase the number of sacks he allows because they both have elite pass rushers.
5. He was playing injured (dislocated kneecap) and didn't miss any time (until the second dislocated kneecap). I'm impressed that he played through the first one, so I'm willing to forgive at least a portion of his poor play this season.


I think Williams is a perfectly average LT. I would love it if we could replace him. The problem is replacing a left tackle is either expensive or requires heavy draft capital. You could find one later in the draft, but it's rare.

Top OTs in PFF WAR since '21 with draft round:

Trent Williams - 1st
Jordan Mailata - 7th
Lane Johnson - 1st
Andrew Thomas - 1st
Tristan Wirfs - 1st
Penei Sewell - 1st
Brian O'Neil - 2nd
Ryan Ramczyk - 1st
Rob Havenstein - 2nd
Kolton Miller - 1st

Draft your tackles early imo.

— Andrew Russell (@Andrew_Russell7) February 21, 2023

 

There may come a time in the near future where we have to trade up to get that premier LT prospect in the draft or we'll need to spend 18 to 20M AAV on a LT in free agency. They don't grow on trees after all.


When it comes to problems on this Oline, I think LG and RT are, by far, the biggest areas of concern. If they fix RT and Volson develops, we'll have a solid front 5 with Williams starting.